§ 11. Mr. Rostasked the Secretary of State for Employment what is his estimate of the number of registered unemployed this winter.
§ 13. Mr. Molloyasked the Secretary of State for Employment how many persons in Great Britain are currently registered as unemployed; and what forecasts for the next half year have been made available to him.
§ Mr. John FraserAt the time of the count on 14th October it was estimated that in Great Britain nearly 613,000 persons were registered as unemployed. It is not the practice of this administration, nor has it been that of previous administrations, to publish forecasts of unemployment.
§ Mr. RostWhen will the Government realise that the only way to prevent a massive rise in unemployment is to curb wage inflation immediately and to restore some cash and confidence in industry? What hope is there of that under the Government's policies?
§ Mr. FraserI believe that some hon. Gentlemen on the Opposition side have a vested interest in high unemployment. [HON. MEMBERS: "Name them."] Within the last month unemployment has fallen by 0.1 per cent. The Government's policy is to maintain employment at as high a level as possible.
§ Mr. MolloyIs my hon. Friend aware that there are people in this House and outside who are making very frightening forecasts and giving the impression willy-nilly, or perhaps intentionally, that if their dreadful forecasts do not come true they will be awfully disappointed? Will he do his best to ensure that such wilful thinking does not come to fruition?
§ Mr. FraserYes, I can give my hon. Friend that assurance. I am not prepared to make forecasts. Some forecasts made only a few months ago varied between 550,000 and 1 million unemployed at this time. That goes to show the danger of making forecasts. The Government are determined to keep employment at as high a level as possible.
§ Mr. MartenOf the figure of just over 600,000 unemployed, how many have been wholly unemployed for over eight weeks or more and how does this compare with the number of job vacancies?
§ Mr. FraserI am afraid that, without notice, I cannot give the figure for those who have been wholly unemployed for eight weeks or more. The figure for vacancies remains high.
§ Mr. SpriggsIs my hon. Friend aware that there is deep suspicion throughout the country that some industries are deliberately running down and creating unemployment? Will he confirm that?
§ Mr. FraserIf my hon. Friend has any evidence that employers are doing that, I shall be grateful to have it. I cannot call to mind any instance of employers deliberately creating unemployment in those circumstances.
§ Sir Nigel FisherWill the hon. Gentleman substantiate his extraordinary statement that hon. Members on this side of the House have a vested interest in unemployment? Will he produce names and evidence for that extraordinary statement?
§ Mr. FraserI do not want to interfere in a private row within the Conservative Party, but I should think that there is a dispute within its ranks about whether unemployment ought to go up or down. I believe that some people have an interest in prophecies of doom coming true. I reiterate that our policy is to maintain employment at as high a level as possible.
§ Mr. HayhoeWill the Minister now have the decency to withdraw the monstrous allegation that he made? While accepting that it is not the practice of his Department to make forecasts about unemployment, may I ask whether he will confirm the estimate given by the Chancellor of the Exchequer during the election that in his judgment unemployment next year would remain at well under 1 million?
§ Mr. FraserI do not dissent from the view put forward by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Of course, there will be an opportunity within the next week or so to discuss these matters at much greater length on the presentation of my right hon. Friend's Budget.
§ Mr. RostOn a point of order, Mr. Speaker. In view of that disgracefully complacent answer, I wish to give notice that I shall seek to raise this matter on the Adjournment at the earliest possible moment.