§ I come now to the prospects for the domestic economy. As I said earlier—and I think this is generally accepted—the economy is now on a growth path of around 5 per cent. a year. Looking ahead over the next year or so I believe that this rate of around 5 per cent. will be maintained, with most elements of demand sharing in the expansion.
§ The growth of consumers' expenditure, though below the exceptionally rapid rate of the past year, should still be high by past standards. In saying this, I have taken account of a rising level of employment and of the provisions for pensions and other benefits which will come into effect in the autumn.
248§ For reasons I gave earlier the volume of exports should rise much faster than last year and the volume of imports more slowly.
§ It is, I think, generally agreed that there is likely at some stage to be a marked increase in investment in stocks, which was very low last year, although the time path of stockbuilding is notoriously hard to predict. This, too, will contribute to the growth of total demand and activity.
§ The forecast path of public expenditure on goods and services is for a relatively rapid growth up till about the middle of this year, after which there is a marked slowing down.
§ By contrast industrial investment is expected to grow at an accelerating rate from now on.