§ 1. Dr. Gilbertasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he has yet decided if he can make an estimate of the total loss to the gross national product for 1972 that has resulted from the miners strike; and if he will make a statement.
§ 17. Mr. Duffyasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimate he has made of the effect of the coal dispute on his forecasts for investment and economic growth in 1972.
§ The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Anthony Barber)No firm estimate can be made until we know how quickly full coal production can be restored.
§ Dr. GilbertIs not this an extraordinary state of affairs? Is the right hon. Gentleman really telling us that the Government at no time made any calculation in the national interest, and in the face of the first miners' strike for 30 years, of what the cost of the strike would be to the country?
§ Mr. BarberI think that the hon. Gentleman misheard my answer. He asked whether I could make an estimate of the total loss to the gross national product for 1972 that has resulted from the miners' strike. My answer is that until we know how quickly full coal production can be restored we cannot make an estimate.
§ Mr. DuffyGiven the shattering of the Government's economic policy—especially on prices and incomes—and the widespread industrial dislocation consequent upon the miners' dispute, can the right hon. Gentleman maintain that the same confidence can still be entertained in industrial circles about the right hon. Gentleman's own target figure for growth and their own intentions for investment?
§ Mr. BarberIf the lost industrial output is made good fairly quickly the forecast growth in the gross national product may be still achieved. The fact is that we cannot be sure as yet.
§ Mr. Evelyn KingIn view of the fact that in Europe about 60 per cent. of primary fuel derives from sources other than coal, is not it the case that, if we were not so old-fashioned, these problems would not arise?
§ Mr. BarberMy hon. Friend has made his point. It is a somewhat wider one than is covered by this Question.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettDoes the right hon. Gentleman's answer to my hon. Friend the Member for Dudley (Dr. Gilbert) mean that before starting this catastrophic confrontation he made no estimate of the likely loss to the nation resulting from this sort of confrontation?
§ Sir G. NabarroAn absolutely ridiculous supplementary.
§ Mr. BarberMy answer means precisely what I said. I think that it is crystal clear. Until we know the facts that I set out it is not possible to make anything like an accurate estimate. A variety of consequences follow from the miners' strike. There is little doubt that the strike has made the unemployment situation worse, without estimating the effect on the gross national product. When I say that, I am not talking simply about those temporarily stopped. I am afraid that this also is a part of the price which has to be paid for the strike.
§ Sir G. NabarroWill my right hon. Friend confirm that one of the major consequences is the permanent loss of a part of the former market for coal on account of greatly increased prices for coal and the miners working themselves out of their jobs?
§ Mr. BarberI was not referring to the settlement; I was referring to the strike. Certainly the strike will not have done the miners very much good in that respect.