§ 15. Mr. David Stoddartasked the Minister of State for Defence whether he would explain the inaccurate 30-day weather forecast for June and consider the desirability of discontinuing such forecasts in the future.
§ Mr. LambtonThirty-day forecasts are based on the study of past weather patterns, and they make no claim to infallibility. There is no fixed pattern of weather repetition, which is why these forecasts are sometimes wrong, but re- 622 search is continuing. Over the past five years about 80 per cent. of the forecasts have shown moderate or good agreement with subsequent weather and I do not propose to discontinue their issue.
§ Mr. StoddartIs the Minister aware that that answer will be received with great hilarity throughout the country? We knew that the present Government were capable of inducing acute economic depression, but we did not expect that that would be accompanied by acute climatic depression. Will the Minister not reconsider his answer? Does not he realise that these erroneous 30-day forecasts cause a great deal of inconvenience and bring the Meteorological Office into disrepute? Would it not be better, therefore, if the money spent on 30-day forecasts were used to achieve more accurate short-term forecasts?
§ Mr. LambtonAs I said, all that the 30-day forecasts are is a general idea of what the weather is likely to be. They are certainly not infallible, and anyone who made his plans by them would be a rather rash person.
§ Mr. John HallWould my hon. Friend agree that we should give credit where credit is due and that the most recent 30-day forecast, which forecasts periods of dry weather interspersed with showers, some heavy, is almost bound to be right?
§ Mr. LambtonThe particular difficulty this month is finding out exactly where credit is due.
§ Mr. George ThomsonWould the Minister say whether his right hon. Friends the Leader of the House and the Patronage Secretary have sought a 30-day forecast from the Meteorological Office whether we are to have a long hot summer?