§ The House will recall also that my Budget proposals were based on the assumption that in the first half of this year national output would be lower than in the second half of 1970. The estimate in the Financial Statement and Budget Report was for a fall of about ½ per cent. between the second half of 1970 and the first half of 1971. From information which has become available since the Budget, it is now clear that, in spite of the signs of a recovery in the second quarter, taking the first half of 1971 as a whole, the level of output was probably rather more than 1 per cent. below the level assumed at the time of the Budget.