HC Deb 21 January 1971 vol 809 cc1266-8
Q3. Mr. Hugh Jenkins

asked the Prime Minister if he will end negotiations for entry into the Common Market, in view of evidence contained in the report of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a copy of which has been sent to him.

Mr. Maudling

I have been asked to reply.

No, Sir. The article referred to is not a report of the Institute, but the work of three of its members published under the auspices of the Institute, which made it clear that the authors were answerable for their own ideas.

Mr. Jenkins

Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the National Institute, which has been making economic forecasts and analyses, does not publish work in its columns unless the Institute is satisfied that the work is soundly based? Does he recognise that the work amounts to a statistical denunciation of the whole proposition on which the Government wish to make application to join the Common Market, and will he withdraw it?

Mr. Maudling

I do not think that is true. So far as I understand the situation, the Institute will not publish anything unless it is a scholarly work based on research. The Institute makes it clear that it does not necessarily accept the conclusions of any work which it publishes.

Sir D. Walker-Smith

In view of the fact that it is a scholarly work based on research, and comes to the conclusion that to accept the heavy burden of impact effects—[HON. MEMBERS: "Reading."] I am paraphrasing the conclusion by reference to the document. [Interruption.] Mr. Speaker, I am in your hands. It is a close paraphrase.

Mr. Speaker

As the right hon. and learned Gentleman is in my hands. I hope that he will be brief.

Sir D. Walker-Smith

Does my right hon. Friend not agree that to assume the impact effects in order to achieve the dynamic effects would be a triumph of hope over experience? Would not my right hon. Friend think that this calls for a fresh assessment of the economic effects of entry so that hopes can be tempered by the realism of experience?

Mr. Maudling

I had the impression that precisely this was going on at present in the course of our debates.

Mr. Leonard

Would the Home Secretary kindly draw the Prime Minister's attention to the article in the Financial Times by Mr. Samuel Brittan, who is not a supporter of British entry into the Common Market, which casts severe doubt on the validity of the conclusion drawn in the National Institute article?

Mr. Maudling

I think we all read Mr. Samuel Brittan with considerable interest, though not always with agreement.

Mr. Blaker

Is my right hon. Friend aware that it is possible in a scholarly work based on research nevertheless to reach nonsensical conclusions, and that that is the view of many respected economists about this work?

Mr. Maudling

I have seldom known a scholarly work based on research to command the agreement of other scholars.