§ 3. Mr. Dykesasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will now consider further expansionary measures, bearing in mind the substantial margin of spare resources which exists in the economy.
§ 5. Mr. James Hamiltonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will make a statement giving the progress of the reflationary measures introduced since July, 1970, with regard to reducing unemployment.
§ 15. Sir G. Nabarroasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, having regard to the report by the National Economic Development Office on trends in mechanical engineering, that growth will be nil in 1971, and 1 per cent. in 1972, compared with his own estimated growth rate of 4 per cent. per annum, what steps he now proposes to take forthwith to reflate the economy, stimulate demand in engineering and other industries, bring to full capacity industries which are working up to 25 per cent. below capacity, and reduce unemployment.
§ The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Anthony Barber)I have nothing to add to what I told the House in the debate on unemployment three weeks ago, on 23rd November.—[Vol. 826, c. 1167–81.]
§ Mr. DykesI appreciate my right hon. Friend's care and concern about avoiding overheating and not doing too much too soon after the measures taken this year, which were very substantial reflationary measures. None the less, is it not now time, perhaps, either now or early in the New Year, to consider additional measures that could be taken, bearing in mind the basic underlying situation of the economy, with a margin of spare capacity that has never before existed, with a labour margin which is at its highest, with stock output ratios at their lowest—[HON. MEMBERS: "Speech."]—in comparison with this particular stage in the cycle, and on the balance of payments front an enormous surplus, and the promise of trade continuing to be very favourable? [HON. MEMBERS: "Speech."] Would not my right hon. Friend—
§ Mr. SpeakerOrder. The hon. Member is being intolerably long.
§ Mr. BarberSince October, 1970, the Government have reduced taxation by £1,400 million in a full year and announced additional public expenditure 236 measures amounting to more than £600 million specifically to boost employment over the next couple of years or so. I have given an assurance that whenever changing circumstances or forecasts warrant it, the Government will not hesitate to take appropriate action, at any time during the financial year.
§ Mr. HamiltonIs the right hon. Gentleman aware that even though he has taken those reflationary measures, stocks are at their lowest since 1967 and investment in the first nine months of this year is lower than in the corresponding period of 1970? Will he now make a truthful statement to the House that we shall have one million unemployed by February, 1972?
§ Mr. BarberI agree with much of what is behind the hon. Gentleman's question, that it is now clear that it has taken somewhat longer than many people thought to throw off the consequences of the years of Socialistic restriction and ever-mounting taxation.
§ Sir G. NabarroWill my right hon. Friend observe that Question No. 15 is neither planted nor rigged, nor is it Ministerially inspired, and that in the West Midlands—
§ Mr. SpeakerOrder. The right hon. Gentleman has asked one supplementary question already.
§ Sir G. NabarroI beg your pardon, Mr. Speaker. I did not hear what you said.
§ Mr. SpeakerThe hon. Gentleman is entitled to really only one supplementary question, and he appears to have asked it already.
§ Sir G. NabarroOn the contrary, Sir, that was the preamble.
§ Mr. SpeakerIt was much too long a preamble. Mr. Douglas Jay—
§ Sir G. Nabarrorose—
§ Mr. SpeakerOrder. Seriously, I ask the co-operation of right hon. and hon. Members in being brief in their supplementary questions. I call the hon. Member for Worcestershire, South (Sir G. Nabarro) for a brief supplementary now.
§ Sir G. NabarroHas my right hon. Friend observed that in the West Midlands there is now an unemployment rate among males of 7.9 per cent., which has risen steadily since the July measures? How high must that figure go before my right hon. Friend takes the additional measures necessary to put those men back into work?
§ Mr. BarberI am well aware of the concern which my hon. Friend has consistently shown about these matters, and for that area, part of which he represents. The National Economic Development Office report mentioned in my hon. Friend's Question refers to the growth of production in the mechanical engineering industries rather than to my forecast of a 4½ per cent. growth of the domestic product as a whole between the first halves of 1971 and 1972. On the information we have now, I believe that we are still on target for that.
§ Mr. JayWhy does not the right hon. Gentleman at least make a further reduction in Bank Rate, for which there is every possible reason in present circumstances?
§ Mr. BarberThe right hon. Gentleman knows very well from his own period in office that no Chancellor ever comments on that.
Mr. Edward TaylorHas my right hon. Friend given consideration to a possible regional incentive to replace Regional Employment Premium when it is phased out? Has he thought about the possibility of a regionally-varied income tax or corporation tax?
§ Mr. BarberI never rule out any representations made to me on any matter within my province.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettDoes the right hon. Gentleman realise that constant repetition of the statement that he will not hesitate to act can have the worst possible effect? It can have the effect of making industry wait for him to make a clear statement. Will he therefore make such a statement before Christmas?
§ Mr. BarberI do not propose to go any further than I have gone.