HC Deb 19 January 1970 vol 794 cc16-8
19. Mr. Bruce-Gardyne

asked the Minister of Technology what is his latest estimate of the probable percentage change in manufacturing investment between 1969 and 1970.

37. Mr. Biffen

asked the Minister of Technology what is the latest estimate he has made of the expected levels of fixed investment in the manufacturing industries and distributive trades, respectively, during 1970; and if these levels conform to the economic strategy being pursued by the Government.

The Joint Parliamentary Secretary to the Ministry of Technology (Mr. Alan Williams)

Information on the levels of investment expected by industry in 1970 was given in the results of the latest Investment Intentions Inquiry issued on 13th January. The expected levels are not inconsistent with the Government's economic strategy, given other claims, particularly those of exports, on resources.

Mr. Bruce-Gardyne

Even if the Ministry's latest forecast should be fulfilled, how does the hon. Gentleman explain the fact that, notwithstanding the glories of the investment grant system, the peak in the rate of growth in the investment cycle on this occasion should be so much lower than in the last two years?

Mr. Williams

The hon. Gentleman would be well advised to study the figures. If he looks at the position of their peak year, which stood out like an iceberg in 10 years of low investment figures, in 1961, he will find that, in the two years following, the decline in the level of investment was nearly 20 per cent., whereas, as a result of the differential rate of investment grant during the period following the 1966 peak, the fall as a percentage of g.d.p. was only from 4.6 per cent. to 4.4 per cent.

Mr. Biffen

Can the hon. Gentleman make it clear that the figures revealed by the latest survey are deemed to be adequate and consistent with the Government's economic strategy, particularly in the light of the Prime Minister's avowed declaration that, after exports, investment was the next priority in the Government's approach to economic management?

Mr. Williams

The hon. Gentleman will recognise, as both sides have said in the past, that confidence is an import. ant element in determining the level of investment, and the balance of payments priority is therefore an absolutely correct one in establishing that confidence. But the level which is envisaged in the latest intentions survey is above that envisaged in "The Task Ahead".