HC Deb 26 March 1969 vol 780 cc1597-9
3. Mr. Gresham Cooke

asked the Secretary of State for Defence what criteria are used to judge the standard of accuracy of the 30-day weather forecasts.

The Minister of Defence for Administration (Mr. G. W. Reynolds)

The forecast monthly mean temperature and rainfall are each compared with observed values in 10 districts of the British Isles. A separate assessment is made of the other information contained in the forecast. These criteria are then used to judge the overall standard of accuracy.

Mr. Gresham Cooke

Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the public do not share the complacency of the Ministry over the accuracy of these forecasts and are not very happy about them? Are the criteria too soft? In other words, if the forecast is a spell of cold weather and it lasts 21 days, does not the right hon. Gentleman think that the criteria are too weak?

Mr. Reynolds

No one in the Ministry is complacent about the Meteorological Office. It would be better if I wrote to the hon. Gentleman explaining the criteria, which are complicated. I would not like to try and explain them in answer to Questions.

Mr. Rippon

Will the right hon. Gentleman try to ensure the accuracy of one-day forecasts?

Mr. Reynolds

They are measured on a completely different set of criteria, about which I will inform the right hon. and learned Gentleman if he so wishes. There is no complacency about this, but the situation is not as bad as some people try to make out.

4. Mr. Gresham Cooke

asked the Secretary of State for Defence to what extent he took into acount the existence of easily discernible short-term patterns of weather before deciding not to introduce a 14-day forecast in place of the 30-day forecast.

Mr. Reynolds

Short-term weather patterns caused by the movement of depressions and anti-cyclones do not continue in any readily predictable manner over periods as long as 14 days. This was one of the factors taken into account in deciding not to introduce 14-day forecasts.

Mr. Gresham Cooke

Would the right hon. Gentleman consider that there is a 12-day pattern of weather precipitations whereby water is sucked up from the oceans and deposited again in a fairly regular pattern over 12 days? Is not this one reason for moving to 14-day long-range forecasting, which might be rather more successful than the present 30-day forecasting?

Mr. Reynolds

I will look at this problem and will write to the hon. Gentleman about it as well.

6. Mr. Lipton

asked the Secretary of State for Defence whether he will investigate the system of weather forecasting, of which details have been sent to him, devised by Mr. Arthur Phillips of Newton Abbot, and which has proved more accurate than the Meteorological Office forecasts.

Mr. Reynolds

The accuracy claimed for these forecasts in comparison with those of the Meteorological Office appears to have been exaggerated. Better evidence would be needed to justify a special study of the system. My noble Friend will write to the hon. Member with further details.

Mr. Lipton

Does my right hon. Friend realise that it is unnecessary for him to write to me about it, because this man forecasts the weather for 12 months ahead and it is, therefore, quite possible for my right hon. Friend to check between now and 31st December whether his forecasts are good, bad or indifferent or at least better than the Meteorological Office forecasts?

Mr. Reynolds

I do not know what method is used in this case, but this gentleman forecast a cold January which turned out to be mild; a wet February which, in the event, was rather dry over most of the country; a fine spell in mid-March which proved cold, unsettled and wet; and a wet third week in March which was dry.