Demand

HC Deb 18 March 1969 vol 780 cc192-4

5. Mr. Ridley

asked the Minister of Power what average annual rate of growth of electricity demand occurred over the last five years; and upon what annual rate of growth he is planning for the next five years.

28. Mr. Alison

asked the Minister of Power what is the estimated annual percentage growth of the maximum demand on the Central Electricity Generating Board system, adjusted to average cold-spell weather conditions, over the next five years.

Mr. Freeson

The Electricity Council's recently adopted forecast for the six years up to 1974–75 implies an average annual rate of growth of simultaneous maximum demand of 5.8 per cent. This compares with an average annual increase, adjusted to average cold spell weather conditions, over the period 1962–63 and 1968–69 of 4 per cent.

Mr. Ridley

Will the Parliamentary Secretary pay tribute to the Opposition for having persuaded him to reduce the over-expensive plans of the electricity supply industry? How much capacity is it planned to provide in 1974–75 to meet the demand of 53,000 megawatts which is now the target?

Mr. Freeson

I cannot give full details on the last point. The forecast of maximum demand for 1974–75 is 53,000 megawatts. If the hon. Gentleman wants specific details about investment programming, no doubt he will communicate with us or table further Questions. I advise the hon. Gentleman not to pursue too closely the question of over-investment. What we have been experiencing in recent years is the result of decisions taken long before the Labour Government came to power.

Mr. Alison

What will be the new margin of spare generating capacity in the light of the downward revision? Will it be lower than the present 21 per cent. margin?

Mr. Freeson

The target remains at 17 per cent.

Mr. Palmer

Does my hon. Friend agree that the rate of growth last year in terms of units of electricity consumed was 8.6 per cent.? Therefore, would it not be very dangerous, looking to the future, to cut back too much on electricity plant investment?

Mr. Freeson

I certainly accept that. We do not think that this is what is likely to take place. The figure I gave of 5 8 per cent. was an average spread over a period.