§ 9. Mr. Tom Boardmanasked the President of the Board of Trade how the rate of growth of world trade in 1968 compared with the rate of growth of British exports on an equivalent basis during the same period; what is his estimate of the likely growth in world trade in 1969; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. CroslandThe relevant comparison is for exports of manufactured goods. In terms of volume, British exports of manufactures in 1968 were 14½ per cent. greater than in 1967, while world exports of manufactures are provisionally estimated to have increased by something over 14 per cent. The latest figures indicate that we are now securing a larger share of this increase. While I expect world trade to grow rather less fast in 1969, I confidently expect a strong growth this year in British exports.
§ Mr. BoardmanWhilst I pay tribute to the efforts of British industry in achieving these exports, may I ask to what extent the right hon. Gentleman thinks that they are attributable to the growth of world trade? What are the probable consequences if the forecasts of a down-turn in world trade in 1969 turn out to be true?
§ Mr. CroslandI must correct the hon. Gentleman on one point. Nobody expects a down-turn in world trade. What we expect is merely a rather slower rate of increase than occurred last year. I think that that was a slip of the tongue by the hon. Gentleman.
As to the explanation of these matters, we must remember that the British share of exports of world manufactures has been consistently falling for the past decade and a half. Last year, for the first time, we began to hold our own. Next year, when the full advantage of devaluation makes itself felt, I have no doubt that we shall for the first time probably for 20 years increase our share of world exports and manufactures.
§ Mr. HigginsWhy does the right hon. Gentleman think that the full effect of devaluation will take place only next year? To what extent does he think that the price-cost advantage of devaluation has already been eroded in relative terms?
§ Mr. CroslandI expect the full effects to be felt only next year because, as the hon. Gentleman knows, in the case of many heavy engineering goods, aircraft and ships there is a very long time lag between order and delivery—in the case of ships probably two to three years. That is why the full effects will not make themselves felt until 1969.
§ Sir K. JosephNot 1970?
§ Mr. CroslandIn the case of ships and aircraft it will often be 1970 also.
As to the erosion, I do not accept what the hon. Gentleman suggested in the latter part of his supplementary question.