HC Deb 12 February 1969 vol 777 cc1287-8
3. Mr. Maurice Macmillan

asked the President of the Board of Trade whether he will publish details, including the relevant computer programmes and flow charts, of the methods used each month to produce the seasonally adjusted trade figures from the recorded figures.

The Minister of State, Board of Trade (Mr. Edmund Dell)

As I explained in my reply to the hon. Member on 20th November last year, a revised article describing the seasonal adjustment methods will be published in due course.—[Vol. 773, c. 287.]

Mr. Macmillan

But will not the hon. Gentleman consider publishing the computer routine? Does he realise that his explanation, which we shall be grateful to see in due course, while covering manual methods and the general system, will not necessarily provide enough information to academics and others who wish to examine the figures more closely?

Mr. Dell

The computer routine, which is a technical tool used to fulfil certain principles of seasonal adjustment, would not greatly help in providing the public with information. Nevertheless, if the hon. Gentleman wishes to come again to the Board of Trade to look at the computer routine, I shall be perfectly ready to let him see it.

4. Mr. Maurice Macmillan

asked the President of the Board of Trade whether he will include each month in the published trade figures the recorded total for the 12 months up to and including the month in question.

Mr. Dell

No, Sir. I see no advantage to be gained from including this which, if needed, can be compiled from published figures. It would, however, be misleading because, as the Notes to the Accounts explain, amendments are incorporated in the "cumulative" totals and not in the monthly figures.

Mr. Macmillan

Will not the Minister consider publishing something which gives us a clearer indication of general trends as well as merely past trends, and will he accept the difficulty, as stated in the words of the O.E.C.D. Secretariat, of applying "very complex techniques in some cases to data which have already been smoothed by a moving average, without a full grasp of the implications of this"?

Mr. Dell

I am sorry that, unlike his father, the hon. Gentleman seems to be interested in last year's Bradshaw.

Sir C. Osborne

Who thought that one out for the Minister?

Mr. Dell

If recent trends are wanted, the best method to use is the three-month moving average based on seasonally adjusted figures. If one wants the longer-term trend, the best thing is what is published in the Press notice, that is, the Spencer 15-term weighted moving average, again based on the seasonally adjusted monthly figures.