Imports (Hansard, 29 May 1968)

§ 16 and 17. Mr. Blaker
asked the President of the Board of Trade (1) what estimates have been made by his Department as to the volume and value of imports of primary products during the second half of 1968;
(2) what estimates have been made by his Department as to the volume and value of imports of manufactures during the second half of 1968.

§ Mr. Crosland
A forecast of the value of imports of goods and services, in the second half of 1968 was given in Part HI of the Financial Statement. I have nothing to add to this.

§ Mr. Blaker
Is that not rather a surprising Answer in view of the trend of imports in recent months and weeks, which suggests that that forecast is not going to prove right? Is the President of the Board of Trade aware of the recommendation of the National Institute 1809 that machinery should be set up for import controls? What is the Government's policy on that?

§ Mr. Crosland
On the first part of the hon. Member's supplementary question, I think it still early to say exactly what the trend of imports will be over the year as a whole, although he is quite right in saying that they are still running at a disturbingly high level. On the second part of the question—the proposal of the National Institute—while, of course, all Governments must be ready for any contingencies at all times, the Government and I are strongly opposed to the idea of import controls, first because they would take a long time to have an effect and, secondly, because they would do damage to our international trading position and would invite retaliation.

§ Mr. Barnett
Would not the volume of imports be seen in better perspective if the Government said that the previous suggestion that we would have a £500 million surplus on balance of payments next year was not sacrosanct and that perhaps about £300 million on a rising trend would be more than satisfactory?

§ Mr. Crosland
I do not think it is a question of being sacrosanct in that way. If we achieved a surplus of £300 million that also would be a not unsatisfactory outcome. Nevertheless, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and I have given strong reasons for saying that £500 million surplus next year would be highly desirable.

§ Mr. Higgins
As there were two forecasts for exports next year, what were the figures relating to them for imports of raw materials?

§ Mr. Crosland
Does the hon. Member mean exports or imports? The Question was about imports.

§ Mr. Higgins
Presumably imports are used in exports.

§ Mr. Crosland
Yes, some of them. I did not follow the hon. Member's question. The; Question I was asked related to forecasts for imports for the second half of next year. I understood the hon. Member to be asking a quite different question about exports.

§ Mr. Brooks
While accepting my right hon. Friend's reasons for opposing im- 1810 port controls at this stage, may I ask him to consider making an immediate announcement that whatever contingency planning is undertaken on this subject the quotas which might one day be imposed would take account of the level of imports during preceding months?

§ Mr. Crosland
No, Sir. I do not propose to make any such announcement. It would be most unwise to do so. Any announcement of this kind would give people the impression, wrongly, that we were going to introduce restrictions and would have the one single effect of increasing the volume of forestalling imports.