HC Deb 01 July 1968 vol 767 cc1063-5
2. Mr. Gwilym Roberts

asked the Secretary of State for Employment and Productivity what are the figures for the numbers of wholly unemployed adults and unfilled vacancies in Great Britain for May 1968; and what are her estimates of the figures for August 1968, November 1968, January 1969 and May 1969.

The First Secretary of State and Secretary of State for Employment and Productivity (Mrs. Castle)

At May 1968, there were 514,081 adults registered as wholly unemployed, and 193,891 notified vacancies for adults remaining unfilled, in Great Britain. I am not prepared to give forecasts of the future level of unemployment or of unfilled vacancies.

Mr. Roberts

Would not my right hon. Friend accept, however, that forecasts of this type are absolutely necessary and should be expected? Would she not accept, further, that any forecast is better than no forecast, and does she not agree that the underlying trend in the figures is satisfactory and shows that, basically, devaluation is working?

Mrs. Castle

My predecessor, the right hon. Member for Southwark (Mr. Gunter), always refused to give forecasts, and I think that he was right. As regards the trend, I would say to my hon. Friend that if exports pick up sufficiently—and the latest C.B.I. industrial survey provides grounds for optimism—the trend of unemployment should fall.

Mr. R. Carr

Is it not a fact that the Prime Minister gave the House and the country an earlier general forecast when he said that the problem in the autumn was more likely to be a shortage than a surplus of labour? Does that forecast still stand?

Mrs. Castle

The right hon. Gentleman has said that it was a forecast in general terms, and the Chancellor has himself given a general forecast. My hon. Friend, on the other hand, asked for detailed figures.

4. Mr. Marten

asked the Secretary of State for Employment and Productivity in how many months in 1967 and 1968 the total of wholly unemployed, seasonally adjusted and excluding school leavers, has been above 500,000.

Mrs. Castle

Fourteen.

Mr. Marten

Is the Minister aware that, in the last 14 months, the number of wholly unemployed, as defined in the Question, has been above the half million mark on 14 occasions, compared with only seven in the whole 13 years of Tory rule? Are we to assume that the Government are honouring their election pledge about full employment and that a figure above half million unemployed is now their definition of "full employment"?

Mrs. Castle

The period of seven months under Tory rule when the figures rose above half million was followed by the balance of payments crisis of October, 1963—

Mr. Marten

What have the present Government got?

Mrs. Castle

—because there was a failure by that Government to tackle the underlying cause, which is what this Government are doing and will continue to do.

Mr. Scott

Nevertheless, will the right hon. Lady confirm—

Sir Knox Cunningham

Speak up.

Mr. Scott

Nevertheless, will the Minister answer the question and confirm that the figure of half a million is regarded as normal?

Mrs. Castle

Certainly not, because, as has been said in answer to a previous Question, both the Chancellor and the Prime Minister have pointed out that the rise in exports which there is every reason to believe will follow devaluation will enable these figures to come back.