§ 22. Mr. Martenasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his latest forecast of the balance of payments position in the second half of this year.
§ Mr. Roy JenkinsI cannot add to the statement in the Letter of Intent, which 1215 my predecessor sent to the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund on 23rd November and which I circulated in the OFFICIAL REPORT on 30th November.—[Vol. 755, c. 348– 351.]
§ Mr. MartenHas the Chancellor seen the Industrial Trend Survey recently published by the C.B.I., in which it appeared that only 15 per cent. of the firms interviewed estimated that they would increase the value of their sterling exports by 16 per cent.? That is not good enough to bring us up to the £ 200 million mentioned in the I.M.F. letter. Has he any comments?
§ Mr. JenkinsI have seen and studied this carefully, together with other pieces of information becoming available. I do not at the moment see any reason to take a pessimistic view about our export prospects.
§ Mr. Frank AllaunWould the Chancellor say by approximately how much in this period the favourable balance would. have increased if there were no overseas military spendings?
§ Mr. JenkinsI cannot offhand give an answer, and any answer would be purely hypothetical because, as my hon. Friend knows, there are no changes which we could make at present which would not have the effect of increasing overseas military spending in the period to which this refers.