§ 5. Mr. Buchanan-Smithasked the Secretary of State for Scotland what estimate he has made of the numbers of graduates entering the teaching profession in each of the next four years.
§ The Under-Secretary of State for Scotland (Mr. Bruce Millan)The estimated figures for the four years beginning 1967–68 are 1,050, 1,200, 1,450 and 1,620.
§ Mr. Buchanan-SmithDoes the Under-Secretary of State agree that the main pressure when the school leaving age is raised will be at the upper end of the teachers' scale, particularly on graduate teachers; and that to be ready for 1970–71 the students should have entered university last October? Is he satisfied that there will be sufficient graduate teachers in 1970–71?
§ Mr. MillanI think that there will be; pressure at the graduate teacher level, but I would not agree that that is where the main pressure will be when the age is raised in 1970. It is rather more likely to be in practical and aesthetic subjects. But these figures, as the hon. Gentleman will see, which reflect the number of students at present in universities are quite encouraging although, naturally, we would like more than these numbers if we can possibly get them.
§ Mr. MacArthurCan the hon. Gentleman tell us what the shortage of teachers is likely to be in 1970–71, based on his latest assessment of the position?
§ Mr. MillanAs I think the hon. Gentleman knows, an assessment was made recently which brought out a figure of about 6,000, but he will also know that, since then, certain steps have been taken to improve the position, and I would hope that, in the event, the shortage would be a great deal less than that.