§ 18. Mr. Cordleasked the Minister of Transport if she is satisfied with the accuracy of traffic forecasts given to motorway catering contractors; and if she will make a statement.
§ Mr. SwinglerThe Department makes the best forecasts possible having regard to the many uncertainties in forecasting (raffle several years ahead. The estimates of traffic throughout the year have, in most cases, been realised within the first two years of the operation of the 50-year lease. In a few cases traffic has been affected by factors which could not be foreseen.
§ Mr. CordleCan steps be taken to see that a more accurate forecast is made so as to save unnecessary financial losses, either to the contractor or the taxpayer? Is the hon. Gentleman aware that the problem is bound to grow as more motorways are built?
§ Mr. SwinglerI appreciate the difficulty. The accuracy of the forecasts depends so much on the smoothness of the procedures for constructing roadways, section by section. No doubt the hon. Gentleman has in mind the situation at the bottom end of the M6 which has compelled us to have a diversion. There is also the difficulty at the top end of the Ml. We will do everything possible to avoid these difficulties, which result from some of the procedure that we have to follow, but we cannot make the forecasts more accurate.