§ Q7. Mr. Patrick Jenkinasked the Prime Minister whether the public statement by the President of the Board of Trade in Glasgow on 3rd January on the subject of the level of industrial investment in 1967, represents Government policy.
§ The Prime MinisterYes, Sir.
§ Mr. Patrick JenkinIs the Prime Minister aware that his right hon. Friend on that occasion said that private investment in 1967 was not going to fall as forecast, and that 16 days later his own Department published a statement saying that private investment in industry would fall not by the 8 per cent. previously forecast but by a new high figure of 10 per cent.? Will he stop his right hon. Friend making such asinine statements?
§ The Prime MinisterThe Board of Trade inquiry was taken over a period of time in the later months of 1966. Since then two things have happened. First, it is clear that the figures for investment in 1966 have been much higher than was then expected, and that affects the forecast for 1967 and, secondly—and I think that the hon. Member will agree with this—there has been a considerable change in business sentiment affecting investment, amongst other things, since the rather gloomy view taken in November.
§ Sir G. NabarroI sympathise with the Prime Minister about his forecast concerning growth this year, but will not he confide to the House what estimate he has made of the level of unemployment this year?
§ The Prime MinisterI have nothing to add to what was said in the last debate on unemployment. As I have said, there are now signs that the increasing unemployment resulting from the measures that had to be taken is flattening out. As for investment, even if I have had to qualify the Board of Trade's figure it still means that the level of investment is only 3 per cent. below that of 1964 which, the House will recall, was an election boom year—so it is not for the hon. Member to get too tragic or sympathetic about it.
§ Mr. HeathWhat will be the fall in investment this year? If the 1966 figure will be higher than that anticipated by the Board of Trade when it made its forecast for the decline in 1967, surely the drop will be greater between the two years, and not less. Is it to be the 7 per cent. forecast by the Board of Trade, the 10 per cent. forecast by the National Institute, or the 15 to 20 per cent. forecast by the C.B.I.?
§ The Prime MinisterThe right hon. Gentleman will probably remember, from his own time at the Board of Trade, that the figures are not compiled in that way—in terms of a percentage drop from the previous year—in every case. Probably the increased investment last year was the reason for expecting something rather higher than we have had. [Interruption.] I am answering the first part of the right hon. Gentleman's question. He is quite capable of looking after himself, without being helped by his hon. Friends. There is no reason to think that because investment was higher in 1966 the fall will be greater. As for the estimates, at this time it is difficult to speculate, but the right hon. Gentleman has correctly quoted the three or four different estimates made. I think that it will certainly prove to be the case—as most people agree—that the C.B.I.'s estimate of last October is far too gloomy. There is now a pick-up of confidence affecting the situation.
§ Mr. Patrick JenkinIn view of the unsatisfactory nature of that reply, I beg to give notice that I shall raise the matter on the Adjournment.