HC Deb 04 April 1967 vol 744 cc7-9
9. Mr. Patrick Jenkin

asked the Minister of Power what is the estimated effect on coal output in 1972–73 of the reduced forecast of electricity requirements announced by the Electricity Council on 16th March.

11. Mr. Alison

asked the Minister of Power by how much the National Plan's forecast of demand for coal by power stations will be cut back as a result of the Electricity Council's recently announced retrenchment programme.

Mr. Marsh

The Electricity Council's forecast of 54,000 MW in 1972–73 implies a reduction of about 15 per cent, in the National Plan forecasts of United Kingdom power station fuel requirements in 1970. How this reduction will affect coal requirements will depend on future decisions on fuel policy.

Mr. Jenkin

Is it not obvious that this is a massive cut-back in electricity investment? Is it not the case that it has been calculated to be about £400 million less than planned over the next five or six years, and ought not a statement of this magnitude to have been made in this House, not merely by a Press release by the Electricity Council?

Mr. Marsh

There is a subsequent Question on investment. There is a relationship, particularly with generation. One cannot draw a direct mathematical relationship, as the hon. Gentleman seems to have done.

Mr. Alison

Will the Minister bring up to date in quantified terms the actual tonnage to be consumed in 1970 to replace the figure published in Table No. 1, page 34, of Part n of the National Plan?

Mr. Marsh

This must await the outcome of the fuel review.

Sir K. Joseph

Will the Minister tell us whether he is proposing to make a statement to the House on the expected investment programme as it affects all the industries concerned, or are we to await the full fuel policy statement that he has promised to the House?

Mr. Marsh

There are two separate questions here. One is the effect of the present figures of demand by 1970–71 and 1971–72. The other is quite separate, about the figures of investment, and there is a subsequent Question on this. As to the type of fuel to be used, this will emerge from the fuel policy review, and a Government taking any decision from that would clearly come to the House.

Mr. Edwin Wainwright

Would my right hon. Friend have a serious look at this problem? Is he aware that in America, when gas came into the economy, the demand for electricity rose tremendously? Would he, therefore, think five years hence, when the economy has had that spurt forward, and the demand for electricity increases?

Mr. Marsh

This is an important point, and this is exactly the purpose of trying to carry out a detailed and systematic review rather than a mathematical approach. One of the things which changes these electricity demand estimates is the increased performance of the gas industry.