HC Deb 24 October 1966 vol 734 cc621-3
29. Mr. Braine

asked the Minister of Health if he will state the average num- ber of patients allotted to general practitioners in the National Health Service in 1950, 1960, and at the latest convenient date in 1966.

Mr. K. Robinson

The approximate average number of patients on the lists of doctors providing full general medical services in England and Wales was 2,500 in 1950, 2,287 in October 1960 and 2,412 in October 1965, the latest date for which this figure is available.

30. Mr. Braine

asked the Minister of Health what net increase he estimates in the number of doctors practising in the National Health Service in the next five years; and how many additional doctors he expects to qualify in each of the next ten years.

Mr. K. Robinson

While estimates vary according to the assumptions made, I expect the number to increase by about 2,500. Output from medical schools over the next ten years will include about 21,000 British-based doctors; separate figures for each year are not available.

Mr. Braine

Is it not clear from the Answers which the Minister has given to this Question and Question No. 29, since the figures must be seen against the background of a rising population, that a serious crisis is looming ahead for the National Health Service unless the workload of existing doctors can be reduced, unless more doctors can be recruited, and unless conditions are created to dissuade them from emigrating? What positive proposals has he now to deal with this situation?

Mr. Robinson

I do not know whether what the hon. Gentleman said was in the context of general practice, but I take it that it was. I certainly hope that the new contract recently agreed will reverse the recent downward trend in doctors. Nevertheless, here again we ought to be clear that the increase in the population is 10 per cent. in the relevant period and the number of general practitioners rose in the same period by 15 per cent. So the situation is not quite so desperate as the hon. Gentleman suggests. If the expansion of the medical schools had taken place a few years earlier, we should have been in a less difficult position today.

Dr. Winstanley

Is the Minister aware that the figures he has given do not represent the true picture in that they take no cognisance of the very sharp decline in the number of doctors employed whole-time in general practice as assistants? Is he aware of the study carried out by the Lancashire Executive Council taking into account the number of principals and assistants in general practice, which shows a very much sharper decline than the figures he has given?

Mr. Robinson

I was asked for the figures regarding general practitioners, and that is generally taken to be those giving full medical services. There has been a reduction in the number of assistants, and I have never disguised from the House that I have felt considerable concern about this fall in the number of general practitioners. But I should like to wait for a few months to see the effect of the new contract before reaching any final conclusions about this. The hon. gentleman may find that it makes quite a difference.