§ 33. Mr. John Hallasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimates have been made of the effect on Great Britain's balance of payments of the large-scale in-flow of immigrants into Great Britain.
§ Mr. CallaghanThis depends on many factors and there is no complete answer. 1137 However, the current study being made by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research will, I hope, go some way to answer the hon. Gentleman's question.
§ Mr. HallWould not the Chancellor agree that, in the absence of considerable spare capital capacity, large-scale immigration leads to excess domestic demand and thus creates a worsening in the balance of payments position? Should not this factor be taken into consideration when deciding the scale on which immigration is allowed?
§ Mr. CallaghanThis is what the study is now trying to evaluate. I would hope that our immigration policy would never be determined purely on balance of payments considerations. But there are a number of factors to be put on both sides. There is clearly a long-term gain from the work of the immigrants who arrive here. Against that must be set some of the factors which the hon. Gentleman has enumerated. I think that this study will provide some valuable information.
§ Mr. RoseWould not my right hon. Friend agree that the supplementary question of the hon. Member for Wycombe (Mr. John Hall) was deliberately misleading and mischievous and that, in computing this, one must recognise the enormous contribution which immigrants have made to the economy of this country and in a number of respects?