§ The Exchequer figures for the coming year show that, before allowing for Budget changes, the total revenue which I may expect is £9,838 million. The increase of £693 million over last year arises principally on Inland Revenue.
§ Total expenditure at £9,177 million shows an increase of £721 million over last year—so revenue up £693 million, expenditure up £721 million. The bulk of the increase is on Supply Services, on which I made a full statement to the House when the Vote on Account was 1441 published on 23rd February. There is also an increase of £124 million in the provision for interest on the National Debt, but nearly two-thirds of this is offset by additional receipts of interest from Consolidated Fund loans.
§ On the basis of present rates of taxation, and assuming a rate of Corporation Tax which I will come to later, I therefore estimate my surplus at £661 million. This compares with last year's estimated surplus of £544 million and realised surplus of £689 million, so that last year's realised surplus is, therefore, close to this year's estimated surplus.
§ Loans from the Consolidated Fund were estimated in last week's White Paper at £1,334 million net, of which £764 million is for nationalised and private industry and £398 million is for local authorities. The latter figure compares with £525 million in 1965–66. Despite this reduction in the estimated net issues to local authorities, I take this opportunity to say that I shall adhere to the general principles of the 1963 White Paper on local authorities borrowing.
§ The borrowing by nationalised industries includes substantial additional sums for investment by the gas and electricity as well as other industries. Despite the weather of the last few days, last winter is still close enough for us to remember that inadequate investment in these industries led to damaging breakdowns in industrial production a few months ago. The performance and efficiency of the nationalised industries is of the utmost importance to the economy; not least to me as Chancellor. For to the extent that they finance their investment from their own resources, they relieve me of the need to lend large sums to them from the Exchequer. If, for example, they were as a group to slip back to the levels of self-financing of five or six years ago, I should have to find another £150 million for them this year.
§ Against the total amount I require to lend of £1,334 million for these purposes, I have a prospective surplus of £661 million on the basis which I have already mentioned. This would leave £673 million to be met from borrowing by the Exchequer and special financing transactions. This £673 million compares with a figure of £724 million that I estimated I would need to borrow a year 1442 ago, so that it is £51 million on last year's estimate of borrowing, rather different from the actual outturn, as I have explained.