§ 15. Mr. Oramasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimate he made, when formulating his Budget proposals for 1963–64 and 1964–65, of the balance of payments surplus on an annual and a quarterly basis; and how the actual performance so far compares with these estimates.
§ Mr. MaudlingThe hon. Member will find in my Budget speeches what I can tell him about the balance of payments estimates which I took into consideration in formulating my Budget proposals. The out-turn for 1963 was published in the March issue of "Economic Trends" and that for the first quarter of 1964 will appear about the end of this month.
§ Mr. OramIs it not a fact that during the first three months of this year the trade deficit was running at an average annual rate of about £360 million a year, and is not this a very serious situation indeed? Will the Chancellor avoid the habit, which some of his supporters in the Press and the House adopt, of spreading sunshine stories when there is an isolated good month? Is it not the case that the good months are good only compared with the others, which are atrocious?
§ Mr. MaudlingIt is a mistake to be either too cast down by the bad months or too elated by the good ones. As to the first quarter of this year, the figures will be appearing in a few days' time. We have never disguised the fact that in the early stages of a programme of expansion, as we are now experiencing, we shall have some difficulties with our balance of payments.