HC Deb 17 July 1962 vol 663 cc223-6
Ql. Mr. Mason

asked the Prime Minister if he has studied the recent reports of the Atomic Energy Authority, working in conjunction with United States scientists, on seismological detection of underground explosions, particularly on the progress in detection and recognition of small explosions; and to what extent this will modify the Western Powers' approach toward a nuclear test ban agreement.

Q6. Mr. A. Henderson

asked the Prime Minister whether he will now make a statement on the meetings of the United States and British scientific teams in relation to the detection of underground tests.

The Prime Minister (Mr. Harold Macmillan)

As I explained last Thursday in the course of my reply to Questions by the right hon. Gentlemen the Members for Easington (Mr. Shinwell) and Derby, South (Mr. P. Noel-Baker), the meeting last week was one of a series of informal exchanges which take place from time to time between British and American scientists. On this occasion the meeting took place shortly after an interesting announcement by the American Department of Defense. This reported preliminary conclusions and observations on new information which had become available from developments in seismic techniques and the study of earthquake records.

These findings were discussed by the scientists. They attached great significance to the information that had emerged from studies of the comparative magnitudes of the various seismic waves from underground nuclear explosions and eathquakes. This may mean that fewer earthquakes than has hitherto appeared likely could be mistaken for underground explosions. The significance of this possible result combined with improvements in relative seismic detection techniques is now being determined in relation to the problem of on-site verification in a possible nuclear test ban treaty, but it would be premature to forecast either as a result of this work or of that by the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority what changes in the West's position may be possible.

In all this work, British and American scientists will continue to work in close collaboration.

Mr. Mason

Would it not appear that the Press also had seismological detectors in Whitehall last week in order to assess the rumblings that were taking place there? Might I also point out that we recognise that the Prime Minister is one of the members on the Government Front Bench who is holding down his own position? As a lot of progress has been made in the detection of underground tests and in detection between tests and earthquake tremors, might not progress be made at Geneva now towards a satisfactory agreement on the banning of tests without even having control posts inside the Soviet Union? Further, is the right hon. Gentleman aware that it appears from Press reports that Her Majesty's Government are not as enthusiastic about getting a test agreement as the United States Government? Is this true?

The Prime Minister

The last part of the hon. Gentleman's supplementary question is, of course, quite untrue. We have been trying our best for this, and our scientists have made very big contributions to the study of the problem throughout. At present the matter of trying to work out precisely the meaning of these new discoveries is still proceeding, and I would hope that as a result we should then be able to consider what modifications in our position we could make with a view to putting forward some fresh proposal. We have made many proposals, and we hope to make one which ultimately may lead to the banning of tests.

Mr. Henderson

Is not the question of the detection and verification of underground tests the main obstacle to the achievement of a nuclear test ban agreement? As the Geneva Conference has resumed its deliberations, 'has it not became a matter of some urgency to decide whether or not it is scientifically possible to detect underground tests? Will not the Prime Minister take some further step to bring about a solution of the problem, for example, by proposing a meeting between the scientists of the United States and the United Kingdom and those of the Soviet Union, with a view to clearing the decks for this problem?

The Prime Minister

That last proposal is exactly the one we made some months ago which up to now has been refused. It is well worth considering whether it could be revived. We are in close discussion on this matter with our allies, the United States, and I hope that we may be able to make some advance.

Mr. H. Wilson

With regard to underground explosions which still require the attention of seismologists, would the hon. Gentleman recall that last week when he made his answer to my right hon. Friend we asked him whether, as this was not just an ordinary routine meeting but was of great importance, he would consider publishing a White Paper with the conclusions of this meeting as recorded by the American and British scientists? In view of the importance of this to the next phase of the negotiations for a test ban, will the right hon. Gentleman agree to publish in a White Paper the conclusions of this meeting instead of relying on the rather general statement he has made this afternoon?

The Prime Minister

I have considered that, but I am not sure that it would be the most rapid method of advancing the negotiations.

Mr. Shinwell

Does not this proposal about detection offer by far the best opportunity of reaching a solution, or at any rate a partial solution, of this very vexed problem? Can the right hon. Gentleman say whether the reports which appeared in several newspapers this morning that conversations to this effect, albeit of an informal character, have already taken place in Geneva, and will he encourage the British delegate there—I understand that it is the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs—to express, so far as is practicable, a conciliatory opinion?

The Prime Minister

I think that what we all hope to get is a successful negotiation. I hope the House will feel that we have tried to negotiate in the way most likely to get results. I am not able to say today how far the possibility of not having to have the inspection system on Russian soil alters the question whether certain on-site inspections will still be required as part of any treaty. All this is being carefully examined, and we hope to make progress.

Mr. P. Noel-Baker

As the United States report of latest developments has been made available to the Committee of 18 in Geneva, will the right hon. Gentleman make it available to Members of this House as well?

The Prime Minister

I have already placed in the Library a copy of the American Defense Department's statement.