§ 20. Mr. Shortasked the President of the Board of Trade what is the estimated natural increase in the insured population of the Northern Region up to the end of 1963; how many new jobs are in prospect; and how many redundancies are expected.
§ Mr. MaudlingI understand that the information asked for in the first part of the Question is not available. The answer to the second part is that about 22,000 jobs are in prospect, of which about 1,000 will be in Cumberland and Westmorland. As regards the third part, I am informed by my right hon. Friend the Minister of Labour that he is aware of about 1,800 redundancies expected during the course of this year.
§ Mr. ShortIf the Government intend at long last to go in for planning, is it not surprising that this sort of information is not available? Is it not on this sort of information that the Govern- 588 ment's plans for the promotion of industry in the region should be based? Is the Minister aware that, according to my calculations, if the national increase in the insured population in the next two years is added to the number of redundancies it comes to nearly twice the number of jobs in prospect? What does the Minister intend to do about it?
§ Mr. MaudlingQuestions of population growth should be addressed to the Minister of Pensions and National Insurance. Unemployment in the Northern Region is down to 2 per cent. —26,000—and there are 22,000 jobs in prospect. I think that the position is not as bad as is sometimes suggested.
§ Mr. ChetwyndOver what period are the 22,000 jobs in prospect? Whose estimate has the Minister taken on this? In the past, highly optimistic forecasts have been given but have never been fulfilled.
§ Mr. MaudlingI explained to the House recently that the estimates which we give are based on figures provided by firms applying for industrial development certificates. By and large, our experience is that they are pretty accurate, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy of any particular case.