HC Deb 10 November 1959 vol 613 cc182-3
16. Mr. Jay

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer the reasons for his decision to lower his official estimate for the United Kingdom balance of payments surplus in 1958 from £455 millions to £349 millions.

Mr. Amory

The estimate of the United Kingdom's identified current surplus for 1958 has been revised to take account of fresh information, principally about dry-cargo shipping earnings. The reasons for the change were outlined in paragraphs 7 to 11 of the Introduction to the recent White Paper on the Balance of Payments (Cmnd. 861).

Mr. Jay

Does the Chancellor think that if one of his friends in the City had over-estimated his earnings by 30 per cent. and publicly corrected it only within a few minutes of the end of the meeting of shareholders, he would not have incurred criticism from the hon. Member for Somerset, North (Mr. Leather), among others?

Mr. Amory

I am quite sure that he would. However, as I mentioned when I spoke to the House the other day, these estimates are not based on bookkeeping figures, as I hope would be the case in the instance to which the right hon. Gentleman has referred. They are simply estimates. We were not satisfied that we were working on the best estimates, and over the past few years we have been trying progressively to improve them. This, I hope, is a step in the direction of achieving sounder estimates than we have used in past years. However, I am still not satisfied that we have entirely accurate figures, and so in giving this estimate we always make it clear that it is based on the best estimates which can currently be collected.

Mr. Jay

Are we to assume that in the official figures to do with the balance of payments there is liable to be a 30 per cent. error?

Mr. Amory

Not again, I hope. The point which the right hon. Gentleman made is fair enough. Therefore, we always announce the estimates as provisional estimates, and they remain, even when they have been revised, provisional estimates.