§ 16. Mr. Croninasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will give an approximate estimate as to how much the balance of payments has been affected from September, 1957, to April, 1959, as a result of the fall in import prices.
§ Mr. ErrollNo, Sir. While the United Kingdom's balance of payments in the period referred to undoubtedly benefited 1407 from the fall in import prices, it is not possible to make any dependable quantitative estimate of that benefit. Some items in the balance of payments, such as the cost of imports, were affected in our favour; others moved the other way, as for example income from investments abroad and export earnings. The effect of any one factor cannot be isolated and measured.
§ Mr. CroninWill not the hon. Gentleman at least agree that the effect has been a lucky windfall of about £350 million a year, and that that sum accounts almost entirely for the improvement in the balance of payments, and also for the diminution of inflation which has occurred in the last year or so?
§ Mr. ErrollNo. I could not accept the hon. Gentleman's argument, because it so happens that at the beginning of the period which he has selected import prices were abnormally high and much higher than they had been for the previous three or four years, so that it is quite incorrect to suggest that we have made a windfall gain, as he described it.