§ Now as regards expenditure. I estimate total expenditure above the line this year at £5,075 million—£155 million more than the out-turn for last year. The Consolidated Fund services will require £816 million in the coming year—£34 million more than last year's out-turn. The difference is largely due to the fact that last year's out-turn benefited, as I mentioned, from the postponement of the interest charges on the North American loans.
§ Supply expenditure is estimated at £4,259 million, £44 million more than the final Estimates for last year, including all Supplementary Estimates, and £121 million more than last year's out-turn. This increase on last year's out-turn is the net effect of a rise of £133 million in civil expenditure—notably in the social services—and a reduction of £12 million in Defence expenditure. The latter Estimate assumes the receipt of £47 million from Germany towards the cost of our Forces in Germany. As the Committee knows, this matter is still under discussion in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
§ On the basis of existing taxation, therefore, total revenue is estimated at £5,490 million against expenditure of £5,075 million, giving an estimated surplus above the line of £415 million. This compares with last year's surplus of £423 million, which was, however, inflated by the £37 million of returned interest to which I have just referred.