§ 49. Mr. Frank Allaunasked the Prime Minister upon what scientific evidence he based the statement which he made to this House on 1st April, 1957, to the effect that a deliberate attempt to hold a nuclear test explosion in such a way as to avoid detection would almost certainly be successful.
§ 61. Mr. A. Hendersonasked the Prime Minister whether, in view of the recent announcement of the Soviet Union of 1384 their intention to stop further nuclear tests, he is satisfied that all nuclear test explosions can now be effectively monitored; and if he will make a statement.
§ The Prime MinisterAlthough I cannot of course go into any detail, I can say that we now have specific evidence confirming my previous statement that a deliberate attempt to hold a nuclear test explosion so as to avoid detection would almost certainly be successful.
§ Mr. AllaunBut a fortnight ago did not President Eisenhower say almost exactly the opposite? Is the President correct, and if so, does not this destroy the argument against accepting the Russian proposal to stop the tests, namely, that they could not be detected?
§ The Prime MinisterNo, Sir. I have in mind what the President has said, and I am afraid I cannot take it that he agrees with the hon. Gentleman's submission. The facts are as I said, and it has always been recognised that any permanent suspension of tests, or any permanent way of dealing with this, would require an inspection system.
§ Mr. GaitskellWill the Prime Minister clarify that? He did not mean that they could not under any circumstances be detected, but that it would be necessary to have special controls in order to detect them? Is that right?
§ The Prime MinisterYes, Sir, that is what I mean—of course, under the present situation. Indeed, if I were taking a purely scientific point, I think it would be theoretically possible even with a very comprehensive system of inspection; but, for practical purposes, what I mean is that it would be possible to do this without detection under the present system of ordinary listening, and so forth, which each country keeps.
§ Mr. HendersonWould the Prime Minister clarify what he has just said? Is he telling the House that the only way it would be possible to detect tests, perhaps secret tests, would be if an international control organisation were set up, with listening and recording posts in all the countries in which tests are likely to take place?
§ The Prime MinisterI think, roughly speaking, that is the deduction. I was asked a scientific question, and I did my 1385 best to answer it. These questions are difficult to answer. I try to answer them from a practical as well as from a theoretical point of view. I am only saying that we have evidence—and it is certainly clear—that it would be possible. It is now possible to organise a test and deliberately attempt to avoid detection by any of the normal means now open to the various countries.