§ I estimate total expenditure above the line in 1957–58 at £4,827 million, which is £41 million less than the actual outturn for last year. The Consolidated Fund services will require £757 million in the coming year—£21 million less than last year's estimate. This relief to the Budget results largely from the fall in the short-term interest rate. On the other hand, Supply expenditure is estimated at a total of £4,070 million, £26 million more than last year's out-turn. This increase is, of course, the net effect of the rise in civil expenditure—notably in the social services—and the reduction in defence expenditure.
§ If, therefore, existing taxation were to remain unchanged we should have total revenue estimated at £5,387 million against expenditure of £4,827 million, giving an estimated surplus above the line of £560 million. This compares with an actual surplus last year of £290 million.