§ I propose to begin my review of the year that is just ending, the financial year 1951–52, with a short summary of the Exchequer accounts. This summary will be brief, for the difficulties facing us today go far wider than these mere figures. One consequence of a Budget before the end of the financial year is, of course, that final receipts and expenditure up to 31st March are not yet known. The figures which will appear in the Financial Statement should prove reasonably accurate, but they must be treated as provisional. We have tried to make the Financial Statement as comprehensive as possible.
§ I estimate that by the end of the year we shall have spent about £4,070 million. This is less than the Budget estimate by about £120 million. Expenditure on Consolidated Fund services and sinking funds is likely to exceed the estimate by some £8 million. The shortfall arises entirely in the field of Supply services and is the result of a number of different factors. For reasons which the Committee know, defence expenditure in the year coming to an end will have 1270 fallen short of the estimate. At the same time, however, Ministry of Supply expenditure will have exceeded the original estimate by about £50 million. A large part of this will, in due course, be reimbursed by the Services in payment for finished equipment.
§ There have also been some Supplementary Estimates for strategic and trading stocks. The other Supplementary Estimates have been offset partly by the reduction in the Exchequer contribution to the National Insurance Fund, and partly by shortfalls in a number of Departmental Estimates.
§ Thus, total Revenue I now expect to be about £4,440 million, about £200 million above the Budget estimate. The biggest increase, perhaps about £100 million is in Customs and Excise duties, which are likely to yield about £1,755 million against an estimated £1,651 million. Most of this surplus is accounted for by the duties under the Import Duties Act, 1932, and the Purchase Tax, reflecting the sharp rise in prices over the year. On the Inland Revenue side, I expect an increase of about £70 million—an out-turn of perhaps £2,370 million against the estimate of £2,302 million. Most of this increase is attributable to the Income Tax, which will probably yield about £1,690 million compared with the estimate of £1,625 million. The yield of the other Inland Revenue duties will be reasonably close to the estimates.
§ As a result I now expect to have at the end of March, on the conventional basis, an "above the line" surplus of over £360 million, as against the figure of £39 million at which my predecessor arrived, before allowing, of course, for the reduction in the Exchequer contribution to the National Insurance Fund.