§ 1. Mr. G. Williamsasked the Under-Secretary of State for Air whether, in view of the obvious variation in certainty with which a weather forecast can be made, it is possible to indicate, in broad terms, the confidence to be attached to each of the forecasts relayed on behalf of his Department by the British Broadcasting Corporation.
§ The Under-Secretary of State for Air (Mr. George Ward)The weather forecasts broadcast by the British Broadcasting Corporation are already carefully worded to show the confidence to be attached to each part of the forecast. For example, unless there is a high degree of certainty in the forecast, qualifying words or phrases are used ranging from "probable" or "likely" to "chance of" or "perhaps."
The booklet "Your Weather Service," published by Her Majesty's Stationery Office, gives some information about the preparation of these forecasts, which I think may interest my hon. Friend, and I am, therefore, sending him a copy.
§ Mr. WilliamsWhile thanking my hon. Friend for sending me a copy of this booklet, may I ask him whether he is aware that these forecasts are very unreliable at times and that the words which are used are also very vague? When we do get a really confident chance of a fine day it would be a very great help to farmers and holidaymakers to know that the forecast did have a No. 1 certainty or whatever one may like to call it.
§ Mr. WardThe main difficulty is that each particular factor in the forecast— 2210 wind, temperature, rain or whatever it is—is subject to a different degree of certainty, and it is this difficulty which precludes us from giving the whole group a letter. I should like to point out that our 24-hour forecasts are right about nine times out of ten.
§ Mr. de FreitasCan the hon. Gentleman say whether there is still a senior scientific officer employed with the sole duty of carrying out a post mortemon the forecasts of the previous day?