WEATHER FORECASTING (Hansard, 27 June 1951)

HC Deb 27 June 1951 vol 489 cc1361-3 1361

§ 24. Brigadier Medlicott
asked the Secretary of State for Air if he is aware of the need for changes in the arrangements for the making of weather forecasts, and informing the public of the same; and if he will set up a public inquiry at which the whole subject can be investigated in the light of the latest experience and scientific knowledge.

1362

§ Mr. A. Henderson
The existing organisation and technical procedure for making weather forecasts in this country are in accordance with the best modern meteorological standards of forecasting. It is, however, the constant endeavour of the Meteorological Office to find ways and means of improving both the accuracy of forecasting and the arrangements for meeting the needs of the public. While I do not consider that any good purpose would be served by a public inquiry, I realise that the subject is one in which there is a wide public interest, and I will therefore, with permission, circulate in the OFFICIAL REPORT a full statement on weather forecasting in this country.

§ Brigadier Medlicott
Does the Minister recall that for this year alone the cost of the meteorological service will be £1,849,000, and does he feel that this tremendous expenditure is justified seeing that the results sometimes are startlingly inaccurate; and ought not some part of this money to be devoted to research into the underlying causes of the rather strange results we get?

§ Mr. Henderson
I venture to suggest that this money is well spent. It is true, as the hon. and gallant Gentleman has said, that sometimes the forecasting is inaccurate, but I think in 80 per cent. of the cases the records show that the forecasting is accurate.

§ Mr. Mitchison
Does my right hon. and learned Friend really think that a public inquiry into the British weather would be likely to serve any useful purpose?

§ Brigadier Medlicott
In addition, could consideration be given to providing forecasts at greater distances ahead than a matter of a few hours? Having regard to the great importance to farmers of knowledge of weather conditions months ahead, could not this be done?

§ Mr. Henderson
I am advised by the experts at the Meteorological Office that they would not desire to express any forecast beyond 48 hours.

§ Mr. Geoffrey Lloyd
Is it not a fact that some of the public disappointment at forecasts is due to the disability under which the forecasting organisation labours by having to make periodical forecasts 1363 which are only available, at least in the Press, some time after they have been made, and that the great advantage of forecasts, for example for flying, is the getting of the reports immediately after they are made? Will the right hon. and learned Gentleman consider whether a service could not be given to the public more on that basis?

§ Mr. Henderson
I do not think that that would get us very far, but I will certainly look into the suggestion.

§ Following is the statement:

§ The existing arrangements for making weather forecasts in this country provide for the extensive and rapid collection of meteorological information as a basis for forecasting and the technical procedure takes account of the latest results of meteorological research, in which British scientists have taken a leading part.

§ Weather forecasting has not yet attained the status of an exact science, and a weather forecast has therefore to be interpreted as a statement of the most probable weather development in the light of the information available at the time of making the forecast.

§ Compared with most other parts of the world the variable weather of Great Britain makes forecasting in the United Kingdom a difficult business at all times. In recent months the weather has been exceptionally disturbed. This has involved rapid changes of temperature. wind and pressure and has made forecasting correspondingly more difficult. It is therefore not surprising that the number of faulty forecasts this year has been somewhat higher than usual bearing in mind that even in the most favourable circumstances a weather forecast can be no more than a statement of probabilities. All cases of incorrect forecasts are investigated at the Central Forecasting Office at Dunstable, and there is a special research division working on basic forecasting problems with the aim of improving the general accuracy of forecasting.

§ Recent measures to improve forecasting services rendered to the public include the introduction of regional forecasts on the B. B. C. Home Service, the introduction of special weather warning services for farmers, and the publicising of facilities for obtaining forecasts from local offices by telephone. The possibility of introducing an automatic service of forecasts by telephone for the greater London area and for other large centres of population is also being examined.

§ The Meteorological Office is also advised by a Committee containing representatives of other Government Departments and of the Royal Society, the Royal Society of Edinburgh and the British Universities under the Chairmanship of the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State.