§ I now return to the prospects of 1949–50. The total Supply expenditure-for the year, as provided in the Estimates submitted to Parliament, is £2,784 million. This is an increase of £342 million over the original estimates for the previous year, and of £150 million over the actual out-turn. But for certain decisions made in connection with the Budget, to which I will presently refer, these Estimates would, in fact, have been £103 million greater, that is £445 million more than last year.
§ Then, I was able to point to a long list of savings, as the Committee will remember, amounting to £400 million, including over £200 million on Defence. But this year Defence is up by £67 million, and the cost of the Social Services—as the published Estimates show—has risen sharply. The total Estimates of expenditure, therefore—but for the decisions which I have just mentioned—would have been £3,414 million.
§ As regards revenue on the existing basis of taxation, changes in rates introduced last year will now have effect over the full 12 months. A full year's cost of the 2080 Purchase Tax concessions must, therefore, be allowed for, including the extensions that have been made in the utility exemptions to cover a wider range of furniture, clothing, and footwear. It is estimated that the Customs and Excise receipts, on the existing basis of taxation, will be as follows:
| Alcoholic drinks | £407 m. |
| compared with | £418 m. last year |
| Tobacco | £625 m. |
| compared with | £604 m. last year. |
| Purchase Tax | £250 m. |
| compared with | £291 m. last year. |
| Entertainments Duty | £45 m. |
| compared with | £47 m. last year. |
| Oil | £63 m. |
| compared with | £57 m. last year. |
| Betting | £23 m. |
| compared with | £23 m. last year. |
| Import Duties Act | £40 m. |
| compared with | £42 m. last year. |
| Other Customs and Excise Duties | £82 m. |
| compared with | £75 m. last year. |
| Making a total of | £1,535 m. |
| compared with | £1,557 m. last year. |
§ For Tobacco Duty we are working on the basis of a 4 per cent. increase in consumption, for which the necessary supplies of tobacco will be made available, included a small increase in our purchases of North American tobacco.
§ Inland Revenue Receipts, on the existing basis of taxation, will, in the aggregate, show a small increase, although some yields will be down. I estimate as follows:
| Death Duties | £165 m. |
| (£12 m. down) | |
| Stamps | £50 m. |
| (£6 m. down) | |
| Special Contribution | £25 m. |
| (That is all that remains to be collected). | |
| Excess Profits Tax has virtually come to an end, but with Profits Tax the combined yield should be | £240 m. |
| (compared with | £279 m. last year) |
§ Surtax should be up £7 million, at £105 million and Income Tax up £113 million at £1,480 million.
2081§ This last item reflects, in the main, the higher profits of 1948, which come under charge this year. The total, including £1 million for Miscellaneous Duties, is thus £2,066 million, an increase of £8 million over last year.
§ Finally, we come to other Revenue: Motor Duty £54 million, an increase of £1 million on last year; Surplus Stores £44 million against £99 million last year; Trading Services £18 million, compared with £28 million last year; Broadcasting Licenses and Crown Lands, the same as last year, £13 million; Sundry loans £20 million, an increase of £2 million over last year; and Miscellaneous Receipts £50 million, against last year's receipt of £81 million, leaving out of account the special receipt from India that I mentioned earlier. The total of these other items of Revenue is £199 million, producing a total Revenue, on the existing basis of taxation, of £3,800 million.
§ The items "below the line" are, naturally, mainly expenditure, being the capital outgoings of the Government, against which there is little by way of capital receipts. Expenditure at £518 million includes, as its two largest items, £220 million for loans to local authorities, and £164 million for war damage, including provision for public utilities under the Bill which is now before the House. Receipts "below the line" are put at £62 million.
§ The result is to show, for 1949–50, on the existing basis of taxation, and before taking into account the decisions I referred to a few moments ago, an "above the line" surplus of £386 million, compared with £831 million last year, an overall deficit of £70 million compared with an overall surplus of £352 million last year, and a true revenue surplus of only £408 million, compared with the £684 million last year.