§ Motion made, and Question proposed, "That this House do now adjourn."— [Mr. R. J. Taylor.]
§ 11.31 p.m.
§ Mr. Hollis (Devizes)I beg to bring to the notice of this House a subject of the first importance, a subject which I think transcends party divisions, because without a solution of it none of our party questions could possibly be solved. It is the question of the birth rate. If we look 194 to history we find some rather alarming lessons about the habits of the birth rate. The general lesson so often repeated by history seems to be that when nations have attained what is called a higher standard of living, one of the consequences of that high standard of living is a fall of the birth rate, with a resulting decline in the population. As a result, the nations of a lower standard break in, in order to destroy that civilisation, and in their turn become less fecund and fall into decadence. There are many instances of that. It is the object of all men of good will to prevent a repetition of that sad lesson in the history of our own civilisation today.
Now the story of the British people in the 19th century, from this point of view, was an extraordinary story. In the ninety-nine years between 1815 and 1914, the population of this island multiplied 195 itself by almost four, and during that same period we were also populating a very large proportion of the rest of the world. So there must have been some six or seven times as many people of British origin in the world in 1914 as there were in 1815. On the other hand, there was, during those years, the first signs of the appearance of a curve which seemed to resemble those all-too-familiar curves in history; and from the 1870's onwards you got the beginning of a steady decline in the birth rate. It is true, of course, that for some years that decline in the birth rate does not reflect itself in a declining population. As everyone knows, the birth rate can decline for a considerable time without population declining because, though each particular woman may, on the average, have fewer children, with each generation for some time there will be a larger number of women of child-bearing age. Therefore, though even the immediate result may not be wholly healthy, since each year a larger proportion of the population is old and a smaller proportion is young, yet it will be some considerable time before there will be an actual decline in the population.
We have now reached a stage where, on our present curve, we shall have something like a stable population for some time, and when we get to about the 1970's the danger of the beginning of a rather rapidly declining population. There are some people who say "Why does that matter?" If population were declining at the same time in every part of the of the world, or changing in the same proportion as our own, it might perhaps not matter. But obviously that is not happening, and there is no way in which you can make it happen. It is clearly one of the major causes of the disturbances of history. As has been proved again and again, when population changes at one pace in one part of the world, and at a totally different pace in different parts of the world. Therefore, I think there can be no one who has considered this problem who does agree that the most important of our problems is that some means should be discovered at least to prevent this decline of population in this country.
The reasons for the fall in the birth rate are by no means simple. The deepest are clearly somewhat mysterious, 196 deep and spiritual reasons, which cannot be corrected by any simple Act of Parliament. Briefly speaking, it is fair to say that people have children when they want to have children, and that the number of children born depends on the extent to which people are able to have a faith in the purpose of life, whether natural or supernatural. And the amount the Government can do is, therefore, limited, but, though it is limited, it is not by any means unimportant. There are certain things which Governments can definitely do in the way of encouraging a population policy which I will venture to bring to the notice of the House and to the Parliamentary Secretary to the Ministry of Health who has been kind enough to come here to answer in this Debate.
It seems to me there are three or four ways in which it can properly be tackled. Firstly, and obviously, the growth of the population depends upon two things—a high birth rate and a low death rate, and the reason we have been able to suffer a much lower birth rate without a fall in the population is because we have had a gradually declining death rate. This is a thing upon which we can congratulate ourselves, and about which, obviously, there need by no controversy. Firstly we can recommend to the Government that they should follow out every measure that is possible in order to have as low a death rate as possible. But when we come to study the medical statistics we find that, whereas every other medical statistic gives the most satisfactory results, there has been by no means the decline in maternal mortality there has been in every other sort of mortality. I would ask the Government to meditate upon the reason for that. It seems to me one reason for it is that there has been a gradual raising of the age at which marriage takes place and at which the first child is born. Therefore, if we are to decrease maternal mortality it is greatly desirable that marriages should take place at an earlier age, and that is, to a large extent, an economic problem. When hon. Members talk about equalisation of incomes I would beg them —having in mind the admirable text book written by the Chancellor of the Exchequer—to realise that as important as the equalisation between one class and other class or between one profession and another profession, is a much greater equalisation between the old and the young. A substantial contribution to this problem 197 will be made if it can be so arranged that the rewards, both in public and private life, be more equally distributed between the different ages of the population.
Then we come to another question which, obviously, one approaches with a certain amount of diffidence. That is that very clearly there has been, over the last generation, a very great change in the status of the women of this country. Now such words as feminism, or any words ending in "-ism," are vague words which cover a number of things, some of which are ill-defined, some of which are good and some of which are bad. Nobody could possibly advocate that women should be asked to return in every way to the sort of life, whether from the point of view of child-bearing or from other points of view, that they were required to live 100 years ago. With our lower death rate population policy would not require that. On the other hand, under the name of feminism, women have sometimes been encouraged to think that other avocations are of greater importance than the vocation of motherhood, and I would suggest that that is a danger. So far as careers and motherhood can be combined with a public career this is wholly desirable, but the old adage remains true—that the hand that rocks the cradle rules the world. When it ceases to rock the cradle, it will soon cease to rule the world. It is highly doubtful whether the influence of women will not be decreased rather than increased if it is reflected in a sharply declining birth rate.
Again, if we turn to the more intellectual walks, we find that at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution the great mark of the progressive was that he was anxious to take women out of industry. Today the mark of the progressive seems sometimes to be an anxiety to put women back into industry; we have a peculiar problem at the moment with the necessity to increase production in our crisis and I make no criticism of the temporary employment of women labour. But in general we should be extremely careful as to what extent it is desirable that women should play a large part in industry. We have only to contrast the birth rate figures between mining populations and textile populations. We find that among mining populations, where for obvious reasons women do not as a general rule take a part in the industry, the birth rate is 198 more than twice as high compared with textile districts.
There is a third Government Department which, by its very nature, must he intimately concerned with this problem, and that is the Ministry of Town and Country Planning. I would commend to hon. Members the recent works of Lewis Mumford, who argues with cogency that if you want a high birth rate it is very important not to have an over-concentration of population in enormous towns, and not geographically to have over-concentrations of population in flats. Whether we accept his conclusions or not, I beg the Government to investigate extremely carefully what conditions of town planning are most favourable to a high birth rate.
Another Minister who must be intimately concerned with this problem is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. We have recently voted for family allowances. Family allowances in themselves are admirable things, and I support them. But they are not, in themselves, the solution of this problem, for the obvious reason that very properly the class which benefits most is the poorest section of the population, which also happens to be the class among which the birth rate has fallen least. A more effective contribution to this particular problem would be something in the nature of a larger children's allowance for Income Tax. But I would not like to give the impression that this is a simple economic problem. People sometimes speak as if you would inevitably get a higher birth rate if only you could banish fear of war, and increase economic security among the population. Both these things, on their merits, would be most desirable, but we have to face the fact that the birth rate has been steadily falling since 1870, and that during the first 44 years of that period people enjoyed what they imagined to be greater security than at any time in human history. Therefore, the problem is not a simple economic problem.
Time is limited, and I have done no more than set out the headings under which this problem can be considered. I shall look forward to the reply of the Parliamentary Secretary. At the moment we have come to a time when the birth rate has taken a slight turn upwards. Nothing could be more important than that that opportunity should be seized and turned into a permanent trend, so 199 that we can prevent this threatened fail of population in the 1970's, which may be a most serious threat to world stability. That should remain a permanent trend rather than a mere temporary postwar trend, as happened at the end of the 1914–18 war, when there was a temporary upward trend, and then a further and more disastrous fall in the birth rate. One could develop this point at greater length. I have raised it in order that the Parliamentary Secretary may have an opportunity of telling us that the Government are keenly alive to the importance of this problem and are prepared to sketch out the outlines of a great population policy which will, I think, be the underlying and necessary condition for the success of all policies of social reform in this country.
§ 11.52 p.m.
§ Mr. Paget (Northampton)It has been found in all civilisations, and during all ages, that a declining birth rate has invariably been associated with an increased standard of living. I am afraid that if we, as we hope, have a steadily increasing standard of living in this country, judging by history, there is not any very great likelihood of an increasing birth rate as well. Associated with that problem are the problems which arise from full employment. For the first time this country, with the consent of the people of all political views, has adopted a policy of full employment, which means this: There is always work of a type which is essential to the community, but it becomes progressively more difficult to get people to undertake that work, like coal mining. The solution is not simply to raise wages, because the more we raise the standard of living of an occupation such as coal mining, the less inclined people are to do it. Suppose we offered £10,000 a year to the coal miner, how many hon. Members of this House would, not for a year or two but for life, even at that wage, go into the coal mines? Therefore, we have the situation that, with full employment, it becomes progressively more difficult to man our basic industries, and, at the same time, we have a declining birth rate. I am afraid that the time will come when we shall have to face the solution of that problem. The solution may well be that, when it comes to coal mining and that sort of thing, the jobs will have to be thrown open to those 200 who are prepared to accept them, and those people will be the inhabitants of Central Europe where there is a lower standard of living. Where there is a full employment economy, with a rising standard of living, the birth rate may have to be corrected by a policy of immigration, whereby the immigrants first pass through the lower grades of employment and are gradually absorbed in the second generation into the general population. I believe that is the situation which, although very unwelcome and unpopular at this stage, will one day have to be faced.
§ 11.55 p.m.
§ The Parliamentary Secretary to the Ministry of Health (Mr. Key)We are all indebted to the hon. Member for Devizes (Mr. Hollis) for raising this point and to the hon. Member for Northampton (Mr. Paget) for the most interesting speech to which we have just listened. But, when I am asked to give in broad outline a policy for dealing with this problem, I find that at this hour, and in the short space of time left, I am being asked to achieve the impossible. With much of what has been said, I am in agreement, but I think that the hon. Member for Devizes would be the first to say that he has not fully analysed this problem. There are indeed many problems involved. One has to consider many social, economic and cultural problems before one can realise all that is involved in this one great problem of the birth rate. There is in existence a Commission inquiring into the question of population. Last year they took a family census which may throw a considerable amount of light on what is happening. We may be able to discover whether the size of families is or is not declining. We may be able to discover if childlessness is increasing. There is at the moment a considerable increase in the birth rate and the figures seem to indicate that the size of the family is really increasing. If that were true, then we might be able to say that we were at the turning-point in the decline of population. But until we have a full Report from that Commission we shall not be in a position to analyse this problem or to know its real causes and its extent. Certainly by improving the standard of life, by giving a greater sense of security and by providing homes which make family life more possible to our people, we shall make conditions which 201 will conduce to an increase in the size of our families. But until the Commission's report is available, I can go no farther.
§ 11.58 p.m.
§ Mr. Beverley Baxter (Wood Green)In the one or two minutes left I would like to say that the population increase depends surely on the return of our men. Apart from that I would add one thought. We may discuss economic and housing difficulties and distrust of the future, but what is important, I think, is that there is in the world at present a conspiracy against life itself—a conspiracy against faith in the future. It comes from sources which one cannot explain, but it exists. I have just come back from Germany and there psychologically, and from experience, one sees the great contrast between us. Deep down in the hearts of men and women is a doubt about the future. Which of us who are about middle age can do anything but thank God we lived as young men forty years ago. Who would contrast the chances of the young man today with those of the young man of an earlier age? What is the faith in life of the young 202 man today and his faith in the future, compared with what we had in the end of the 19th century? This is an age of spiritual barrenness. It may be that Christianity itself is the only answer. Women are instinct with the life force. Women have a sense of things which they cannot put into words. They are concerned with the birth rate, with the institution of the family and with the preservation of that race, but all those things are under the shadow of this conspiracy against life itself. I cannot give that answer to the problem, but I enunciate it as one of the most sinister things in human affairs today.
§ Viscount Hinchingbrooke (Dorset, Southern)Can the Minister give any indication when the Commission is likely to produce its Report, or when it will have finished taking evidence?
§ Adjourned accordingly at One minute after Twelve o'clock.