§ Now it is time for me to turn to the future. In estimating total expenditure, not only am I faced with the difficulties of looking so far ahead as 12 months, but also there is this year the most important factor introduced by the United States Lease and Lend Act. The estimate which I put forward at this juncture will exclude the values of supplies to be received under the Lease and Lend Act and also payments to be made in the United States of America under existing orders there. As the Committee knows, the Budget is always framed on a strictly cash basis, and it follows that I need make no provision for goods received without payment under the Lease and Lend Act. Payments in the United States under existing commitments will not, as I have already explained, affect the main question of the moment, that of the potential inflationary gap. But in case there should be any misconception about the magnitude of our war effort, I should like to emphasise at the outset that the figures which I shall quote are not comparable with those figures of total expenditure which have previously appeared in Budget statements and in the national accounts. They must not be compared, 1309 for example, with the total expenditure of £3,884,000,000 in 1940–41.
§ The Committee will, I am sure, appreciate that I cannot to-day give an estimate of the value of supplies to be received from the United States in the coming year. I will, however, say that the figures which I shall give to the Committee are comparable with a total of Government expenditure under all heads, that is, including for this purpose the value of any supplies that may be provided by Lease and Lend assistance and the amount of payments in the United States under existing orders, which before the end of the financial year will be far beyond the figure of £5,000,000,000 which I have seen mentioned in various quarters.
§ The principal item in my calculation must be the total to be adopted for the Vote of Credit. This is always a difficult question, but with the exclusion of the items which I have mentioned I propose to assume, for the purposes of this Budget, that the Vote of Credit expenditure during the year will amount to £3,500,000,000. The estimate to which I have referred, I may say, is on the assumption that there will be no further increase in domestic costs, for reasons which I will give later.
§ The total of the Civil Supply Services is already known at £435,000,000. As regards the Fixed Debt Charge, I propose to put the charge for the current year at £255,000,000. I think that will cover all the interest we shall have to pay, and may provide a margin for the Contractual Sinking Funds, but as in previous years 1 propose to take power to borrow for those Funds such sums as may be necessary. With £17,000,000 for other Consolidated Fund services, I arrive at the total of £4,207,000,000, which will be found in the White Paper.
§ I have already explained that the estimate for the Vote of Credit excludes supplies from, and payments in, the United States. To arrive at the true figure for domestic expenditure, further deductions must be made from the total of £4,207,000,000 which I have given; in particular the expenditure total includes expenditure covered by the growing balances of the Dominions and other countries. After careful examination of all the relevant factors I have come to the conclusion that the figure for domestic expenditure should be put at about 1310 £3,700,000,000, as compared with the corresponding figure of £2,055,000,000 for such expenditure in the first year of the war, and an annual rate of £3,190,000,000 in the first half of the second year of the war. This further increase, excluding as it does expenditure covered by external resources, is of a striking character, and is tangible evidence of the continued expansion of our war effort.
§ I would venture here again to repeat what I have so often said in this House as to how imperative it is that the huge sums we are raising, and others we shall have to raise, should be wisely spent, and that everyone should combine to prevent extravagance and waste. The importance of getting proper value for money was never so vital, and when so many heavy burdens have to be borne, it would be little less than criminal that they should be increased by extravagance and waste. I would like once more to pay tribute to the invaluable work of the Select Committee under the chairmanship of my hon. Friend the Member for Kidderminster (Sir J. Wardlaw-Milne) and to assure the Committee that the Treasury is ever mindful of the need for unremitting vigilance in this matter.