§ 3.39 p.m.
§ The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Sir John Simon)Seven months ago, in the Emergency Budget necessitated by the outbreak of war, I presented to the Committee estimates of what was likely to be our total expenditure in the year ending 31st March last, and of how much out of that total expenditure we might hope to find by taxation. In the abnormal conditions which existed at that time, it was not to be expected that the figures could be very precisely foretold: indeed, as regards the expenditure, all I could do was to add to the total of expenditure already approved the round sum of a Vote of Credit for £500,000,000 authorised to be spent before the end of the year. I warned the Committee that it was uncertain whether this first Vote of Credit would be sufficient to cover all our expenditure until the end of the year. It has turned out that this Vote of Credit has been under-spent by nearly £100,000,000—by £91,500,000, to be precise.
I notice that it has been assumed in some quarters, by some critics, that this under-spent residue of the Vote of Credit indicates a delay on the part of the Services, engaged in the war effort, in carrying through their programme. I do not think that criticism is entirely fair, for this reason. It assumes that we were able to estimate as accurately as we could by ordinary Estimates, and it fails to take into account the difference between the closely checked figures of Departmental Estimates, submitted to and passed by the House, and the broad generalities of a Vote of Credit, which was primarily designed at the time to authorise whatever expenditure came to be met down to the end of the financial year. At the same time I am quite willing to admit that the rapid increase of our war strength is the thing which matters most, and that the reduction in last year's expenditure below what was thought possible seven months ago cannot be judged on 52 an occasion like this by ordinary peacetime standards.