§ Now I think the Committee will be ready to accompany me into 'an examination of the prospects for the future. I will begin with the expenditure side. The first point which I would mention is the Fixed Debt Charge. Neither last year nor the year before did I make any provision for War debt payments to America, nor for the receipt of War debts or reparations by ourselves. In the absence of any fresh development I propose to follow precisely the same procedure this year. But a more difficult problem perhaps arises when one comes to consider what is the proper sum to be allocated to the Fixed Debt Charge. How little fixed the Fixed Debt Charge really is may be illustrated by the fact that whereas last year we provided £224,000,000 for that purpose, until quite recently the figure stood at £355,000,000, a difference of £131,000,000. Of course, it is quite easy to see how that difference arises. That £224,000,000 was only considered sufficient because it made no provision for any Sinking Fund, because of the abnormal cheapness of the rates at which we could borrow on Treasury Bills, and because of the modest encashment of Savings Certificates. We cannot go on like that indefinitely. We cannot consider that we have arrived at a normal figure for the Fixed Debt Charge until it contains a provision for the interest on Treasury Bills and Savings Certificates which would cover an average over a period of years, and until it makes provision for a Sinking Fund, proportionate no doubt to what we can afford, but, 912 subject to that qualification, appropriate to the circumstances 'and conditions of the National Debt.
§ The question I had to ask myself was, has the time now arrived when we ought to begin the scaling up of the Fixed Debt Charge to a normal figure? It is a nice point. But on the whole, bearing in mind that there must always be a lag before the improvement in the condition of the country translates itself fully into an increase in the revenue, I came to the conclusion that it would not be unreasonable to proceed on the old lines for one more year, and once more to arm myself with the power which Parliament gave me last year to borrow for the purpose of meeting the contractual Sinking Funds, if that should be necessary. So the Fixed Debt Charge will stand at £224,000,000, and I hope that the Committee will note my warning that assuredly a larger provision will have to be made in future financial periods.
§ I now proceed to other items of expenditure. I put the Northern Ireland services at £6,500,000 and miscellaneous Consolidated Fund services at £3,700,000. I have also to make provision for the first payment to the Post Office Fund which was set up by the Finance Act of last year. Under the formula laid down in that Act there has to be paid to the fund on every 1st November a sum which is calculated by reference to the out-turn of the preceding year. Calculated on that basis I estimate that I shall have to make a payment of £2,000,000 on 1st November next. That brings the total of all the Consolidated Fund Services to £236,200,000.
§ The figures of the Supply Services have already been published. Although the provision for defence is up by £4,765,000 the total for Supply Services is only £461,924,000 against the original estimate of last year of £463,186,000, so that there is a net saving comparing the one estimate with the other of £1,200,000. Taking the Civil Estimates alone they amount to £335,603,000. That is £6,168,000 less than the original estimate of last year and £9,540,000 less than the total Estimates of last year including supplementaries. The principal cause of this decrease is of course the decrease in the Ministry of Labour Vote amounting to £10,688,000 which arises from the continued decline in unemployment. Against 913 that I have to set the fact that automatic increases in expenditure—that is increases which are not susceptible of control without legislation or without interference with existing commitments—exceed automatic decreases like the decrease in war pensions by a substantial amount. I also have had to make some provision for measures adopted by the Government with the approval of Parliament for such matters as the slum clearance campaign, the better marketing operations for agriculture and the provision of rural water supplies.
§ Turning to self-balancing expenditure, I estimate the expenditure of the Post Office at £60,463,000, an increase of £1,024,000 to meet the growth of business which is to be expected with the revival of trade. The item allotted to the Road Fund which is, of course, the produce of the Licence Duties less the Exchequer share of those duties is increased to £26,300,000 in order to allow for the expansion in the licences which we expect. Omitting self-balancing expenditure
| the Supply Services amount to | £461,924,000 |
| and the Consolidated Fund Services to | £236,200,000 |
| making a total of ordinary expenditure of | £698,124,000 |