§ What revenue have we to meet this expenditure? Although there are many signs that the industrial depresson is lifting, it is doubtful whether yet there has been any appreciable rise in the purchasing power of the great mass of our 1732 population on which the Customs and Excise revenue so largely depend. Most of that revenue comes from five articles—beer, spirits, tea, sugar, and tobacco. The consumption of beer and spirits, and to a less extent the consumption of tobacco, has been falling, and it is not certain that the bottom has been touched. The consumption of tea and sugar was rising, but this has been checked recently by advances in prices due to the fact that the world's demand is expected to exceed the supply. The result is that I have to count on a smaller revenue from Customs and Excise in the current year. I put Customs at £118,300,000 and Excise at £155,700,000, making, in all, £274,000,000, about £6,000,000 less than the Exchequer receipts of last year.
§ I estimate the total Inland Revenue duties at 2445,000,000, which compares with last year's Estimate of £445,800,000, and the realised receipt of £482,000,000. In the coming year, I cannot, anticipate another exceptional yield from Death Duties, and the yield from Income Tax will fall, because the good trading year, 1919–20, is replaced in the average by the poor year, 1922–23, and because last year included considerable arrears at the 6s.rate. Super-tax I also expect to yield a smaller amount. On the other hand, with diminishing liabilities for repayment, I expect to receive a larger net receipt from the arrears of Excess Profits Duty, though any estimate under this head is somewhat uncertain.
§ The details of the Inland Revenue figures are as follow:
| £ | |
| Death Duties | 52,000,000 |
| Stamps | 20,000,000 |
| House Duty, Land Tax, and Mineral Rights Duty | 3,000, 000 |
| Income Tax | 280,000,000 |
| Super-tax | 58,000,000 |
| Excess Profits Duty | 12,000,000 |
| Corporation Profits Tax | 20,000,000 |
| Total | £445,000,000 |
§ The other Revenue items are:
| £ | |
| Motor Vehicle Tax | 13,250,000 |
| Post Office | 54,500,000 |
| Crown Lands | 900,000 |
| Sundry Loans | 12,500,000 |
| Ordinary Miscellaneous Receipts | 12,500,000 |
| Special Receipts | 40,000,000 |
§ The total Revenue, on the basis of existing taxation, therefore, is £852,650,000, of which the Tax Revenue is £732,250,000. With an estimated expenditure of £816,616,000, this leaves me with a surplus of about £36,000,000.