§ The surplus, as far as last year is concerned, is attributable to two things. First of all, you have the savings in expenditure, which, in spite of very heavy Supplementary Estimates, amounted to £1,238,000. You have besides the improvement in revenue over the Estimates amounting to £4,060,000. I would recall that when I made my Budget statement last year I was blamed for taking too sanguine a view of the prospects of trade, and I was told that I had based my Estimates on too bright and too hopeful a forecast. As a matter of fact, I erred on the side of over caution. All the items subject to trade fluctuations, except two, and there are special reasons in those two cases, exceeded the Estimates. Those two were sugar and tea, which, although they both exceeded the receipts of the previous year, did not quite come up to the Estimates. In both cases you had a comparative poor harvest, with consequent higher prices. The increase in price was slight, but still it affected consumption. That in itself is a significant fact. In addition to that, there was a considerable withholding of tea when it was understood that there was a large realised surplus, because the tea trade were not quite sure what might happen. They therefore withheld clear-antes to a considerable extent. But for that, the Tea Estimate would have been nearly realised. The same thing applies to sugar.
§ Taking all the other taxes which Constitute the best index to the condition of 1851 our trade, and its prosperity or otherwise—spirits, beer, wine, tobacco, Post Office, Mint—although I took a very cheerful estimate of the trade prospects of the year and fashioned my Estimates accordingly, the Estimates were considerably exceeded in each and all of those cases. The Death Duties were the only case in which there was an appreciable disappointment in the matter of revenue. Although the result in that case is disappointing, the cause is full of cheer. The failure of the Death Duties to come up to the estimate was entirely due to the abnormally low death-rate of last year. It was lower by 6.4 per cent. than the average for the previous three years. It is very remarkable that when the death-rate was lower by 6.4 per cent. the receipts from Death Duties fell exactly 6 per cent. below my Budget Estimate. That shows the extreme accuracy with which the Estimates have been prepared. That leaves me with a realised surplus of £5,607,000.