§ I come to the revenue for this year. In estimating it, as every Member of the Committee knows quite well, the conditions and prospects of trade constitute a most important element. Almost all branches of the revenue, except possibly the Income Tax, respond immediately to trade conditions. The Income Tax, computed upon a three years' average, shows that we may have a year of very good trade, with a bad Income Tax year. That is what happened more or less this year, because we have one moderate year substituted for one excellent year. Therefore the Income Tax will be slightly down, although it is a year of good trade. What is the trade outlook? I have made many inquiries in divers quarters, and in very authoritative quarters, and I am very glad to be able to say that all the replies which I have received have been most reassuring. I am told that the outlook is distinctly bright. The world's crops for this year are likely to be abundant. That is a great impetus to trade. There has been an immense production of gold. Last year was a big one in this respect; this year, I am told, is larger. The commercial world everywhere is in better heart. There is more enterprise. Everything makes the prospect very much brighter. I am told, on authority that I do not doubt, that we shall possibly see a greater 1127 volume of trade this year and next year than has ever been witnessed in the history of this country. Cotton, which was giving us a good deal of anxiety, promises by October to be abundant in the supply of raw material. Imports and exports are leaping up. The home market is much busier. Unemployment is going down. Last year at this time it was something like 8 per cent.; now it is 4 per cent., and it is still steadily on the down grade. All indications are that this year's trade will be good, and that next year's trade will be better; that the people will be prosperous and that therefore the revenue will show expansion. The Revenue Departments are fairly good tests of this, and there is one advantage in bringing in the Budget late. That is that you have been able, at any rate, to test some of the duties and taxes for two or three months before you introduce your Financial Statement and make your Estimates. And that is what I find—that all the taxes and duties which constitute the best index of trade are doing well. The Post Office is a very good test of either good or bad trade. The Mint is almost better—because when the purchasing power of the people goes up there is a greater demand for small change. That improves the revenue. The Mint is doing uncommonly well, and there is a greater demand for silver, very largely for home use. The duties, too, on articles of household consumption—tea, sugar, coffee, cocoa—promise well; and stamps, which especially show the state of trade activity like bills of exchange, cheques, receipt stamps, and stamps on marine policies— all these stamps, which are peculiarly affected by trade activity, are doing brilliantly. The Stock Exchange is not always a good indicator as to whether trade is either good or bad; but the Stock Exchange, too, has been prosperous. Therefore I am justified in making my estimate on the assumption that there will be an expansion of revenue owing to improved trade.