§ Mr. GibbTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department if he will make a statement on the probable accuracy of each of the different forecast average prison populations set out in scenarios A-D in the Home Office Prison Population Brief, England and Wales: March 2003 (27/10/03). [143838]
§ Paul GogginsThe prison projections model has been shown to be accurate in predicting the prison population given the correct assumptions about sentencing. It is not possible to be certain about the direction of future trends in sentencing because trends observed over a number of years cannot be assumed to continue. It is for this reason that the projections cover a range of different scenarios and are regularly updated to take account of changing trends and new policies affecting the prison population. The central projections were updated in the summer and published in the April Prison Population Brief in September. The actual prison population was 116 below the projection used for planning purposes on 12 December 2003.
The projections take into account known changes in policy and legislation where the relevant legislation has been passed and a timetable agreed for implementation. The impacts of the new Criminal Justice Act are therefore yet to be included.