HL Deb 09 October 2003 vol 653 cc80-1WA
Lord Morris of Manchester

asked Her Majesty's Government:

What estimate they have made of the higher prevalence of deaths among older vulnerable people during this year's exceptionally high summer temperatures; and what action they are taking in response to these deaths. [HL4569]

Lord Warner

The Office for National Statistics routinely publishes weekly estimates of deaths registered in England and Wales. These indicated 907 more deaths registered in the week ending 15 August, which included the day on which the hottest temperature was recorded. During the majority of other weeks in the summer, numbers of deaths registered were below the seasonal average. On average, 34 per cent of deaths registered each week during July and August occurred in those aged 75–84 and 31 per cent in those aged 85 and over. These proportions did not vary according to the temperatures recorded in each week, including week ending 15 August, and thus there is no evidence of a differential impact on older age groups.

To support National Health Service managers in anticipating circumstances of weather related high demand, the Department of Health, together with the Meteorologicial Office, ran a weather forecast/health demand trial project, Forecasting the Nation's Health, supported by Treasury "Invest to Save" funding, over the winter of 2001–02 and 2002–03. It used weather forecasts and research data to provide NHS managers with advance warning of the impacts of weather and other key factors on health, and therefore hospital workloads, in their area. This alerted them as to when and where to expect increased emergency admissions and allows them to plan the use of resources more efficiently. Originally, the project was developed to look at winter weather events but this summer it has been successfully adapted to forecast the hot weather and issue advance warnings to hospitals participating in the pilot project and the public. In particular, a press release "Ten tips for surviving summer sun", providing advice on preventative measures was made by the department acting on advice from the Met Office on 5 August, in advance of the extreme temperatures— with particular emphasis on advice for the old and vulnerable.

This work is without precedent internationally. The trial project has been completed and there are two external evaluations to look at the reliability and value of such workload forecasting for the NHS, following which the department will consider future development in this area.