§ Mr. GroganTo ask the Secretary of State for Transport, Local Government and the Regions, pursuant to his answer to the hon. Member for Hendon (Mr. Dismore) of 12 December 2001,Official Report, column 871W, on rents, if he will provide similar estimates to those he provided for Hendon for the real terms percentage changes in each year he predicts for formula rents for council tenants in (a) Selby and (b) York until 2011. [41264]
§ Ms KeebleAs I said in my answer of 6 February 2002,Official Report, column 1004W, to my hon. Friend, the underlying increase in "formula" rents will be the same for all local authorities.
It is possible to make estimates of how average "actual" rents might change in real terms between 2001–02 and 2011–12 if the national average local authority formula rent were to increase by an average of about 1.5 per cent. per year, and each local authority were to move its actual average rent to its average formula rent over that period 910W (ignoring the impact of rent caps and the limit on annual rent changes for individual tenants). This was the basis of the figures given to my hon. Friend the Member for Hendon (Mr. Dismore) on 12 December 2001, Official Report, column 871W. On the same basis, the figures for Selby and York would be as follows:
Percentage Selby York Estimated real increase 2002–03 1.3 0.7 Estimated average real increase 2001–02 to 2011–12 1.8 1.3 Average real increase 1991–02 to 2001–02 3.1 4.3 However, these figures are only estimates based on a number of assumptions. Ultimately the level of "actual" local authority rents over the next ten years is a matter for the local authority. The level will depend, among other things, on the outcomes of future spending reviews, changes in property values and the decisions taken by individual local authorities.