§ Mr. KeyTo ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry (1) how many billion cubic metres of gas she expects to be imported by 2010; and if she will make a statement; [7360]
(2) when she expects the UK to become a net importer of gas; and if she wall make a statement. [7359]
§ Mr. WilsonThe Department makes and publishes projections of UK gas supply and demand, for example in 'Energy Projections for the UK' published in November 2000 and in the annual "Brown Book". In DTI's submission to the current Performance and Innovation Unit Energy Review, projections of supply and demand consistent with these publications were presented which suggest that the UK could become a net importer of gas on an annual basis by 2005 or soon thereafter. There is, 1159W though, uncertainty on both the supply and demand projections, not least since both can be affected by changes in energy prices. Most outside commentators are also currently forecasting net imports from around 2005–06. At times of high demand in the winter, the UK is already a net importer of gas, as it was before 1997.
Looking further ahead, to 2010, there is greater uncertainty, so it is possible only to speculate on a likely range of estimates for net imports in that year. Allowing for an effect on gas demand from the full Climate Change Programme announced in November 2000, and assuming production by then of at least some of the discovered gas reserves which are currently classified as possible and of some as-yet-undiscovered gas reserves, an import range of between 15 and 55 billion cubic metres is indicated.