§ Mr. KeyTo ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what percentage of the UK's energy she expects to be sourced from gas by 2020; and what by percentage the countries of origin of the gas will be. [7379]
§ Mr. WilsonFuture estimates of the proportion of gas in UK primary energy demand in 2020 are naturally subject to considerable uncertainty. My Department's paper, 'Energy Projections for the UK'1, suggests that under a number of assumptions, including possible future economic growth and fossil fuel prices, gas will supply a little under 50 per cent. of primary energy demand in 2020.
It is anticipated that much of the UK's gas will, by then, be imported. With the commissioning of the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector in October 1998 and the opening of the Vesterled link with Norway in October 2001, the UK is an integral part of the European gas network. Further links are likely. Europe's indigenous production is expected to decline by 2020 but it is relatively well situated close to more than two thirds of the world's proven gas reserves. The UK's gas could come from a variety of sources with suppliers of pipeline gas likely to include Norway, Russia and countries in the Caspian Basin and North Africa. The share that comes from each in 2020 will be determined by commercial considerations and supply-demand pressures in Europe both before and at that time. It is also possible that the UK will again import Liquefied Natural Gas that could come from some of the above countries but also from more distant sources such as the Middle East, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago.
1 EP68 The Stationery Office and www.dti.gov.ukknergy/ep68final.pdf