§ Mr. DenhamTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security (1) what estimate he has made of the number of pensioners claiming income support in 2025 and 2035, assuming that the income support level remains at its current proportion of average earnings; [10511]
(2) what estimate he has made of the number of pensioners in 2025 and 2035 who will have a state earnings-related pension scheme entitlement or other second-tier pension entitlement which, in combination with their basic pension entitlement, will leave them with an income below current income support levels, assuming that the basic state pension and the level of income support remain constant in real terms; [10513]
(3) what estimate he has made of the number of pensioners claiming income support in 2025 and 2035, 222W assuming that income support levels remain constant in real terms; [10510]
(4) what estimate he has made of the number of pensioners in 2025 and 2035 who will have a state earnings-related pension scheme entitlement or other second-tier pension entitlement of under £20 in 1996 prices; [10512]
(5) what estimate he has made of the number of pensioners claiming income support over the period of the Government Actuary's quinquennial review of the national insurance fund; and what assumptions he has used to make this estimate. [10514]
§ Mr. HealdThe information is not available in the format requested. However, some information is now available from the departmental pensioner incomes simulation model, which projects changes in pensioner incomes to the year 2025. The results from the model are heavily dependent on the economic and behavioural assumptions used, and should be treated as a broad indication of the likely order of magnitude of any figures given, and should in addition be rounded heavily1. Details of the methodology and assumptions used in the model, and a brief overview of basic results, will appear in a technical paper released in the coming months.
In 2025, assuming that basic state pension and the level of income support remain constant in real terms at 1994 prices, PENSIM projects that approximately 1.5 million pensioner benefit units2 will have a SERPS pension entitlement or other second-tier pension entitlement which, in combination with their basic pension entitlement, will leave them with a pension income below income support levels.
However, due to income from other source, such as earnings and investment income, and other income support rules, such as capital limits, PENSIM estimates that in 2025 there will be approximately 0.5 million pensioner benefit units in receipt of income support. In 2010 PENSIM estimates there will be approximately 1 million pensioner benefit units in receipt of income support, assuming that income support levels remain constant in real terms.
If income support levels had been uprated to remain at the same proportion of average earnings as in 1994, PENSIM projects that in 2025 there would he approximately 1.5 million pensioner benefit units in receipt of income support.
PENSIM can be used to estimate relative changes over time but cannot produce robust estimates of absolute values. It cannot therefore be used to estimate the number of pensioners in 2025 who will have a SERPS pension entitlement or other second-tier pension entitlement of under £20 in 1996 prices.
Notes1All figures rounded to the nearest 500,000.2Pensioner benefit unit is defined as a single pensioner over state pension age in 2025, or a couple with at least one partner over state pension age.