§ Ms ChurchTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what were the predictions for the public sector borrowing requirement in the years 1990 to 1995 made in the previous year. [6899]
§ Mr. JackThe table sets out the information requested.
Year Forecast made in: PSBR £ billion 1989–90 March 1989 -13.8 1990–91 March 1990 -6.9 1991–92 March 1991 7.9 1992–93 March 1992 28.1 1993–94 March 1993 50.1 1994–95 November 1994 37.9 1995–96 November 1995 21.5
§ Ms ChurchTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the predicted figure for the public sector borrowing requirement in 1996 would be, if the average error in past predictions for(a) 1992 to 1995 and (b) 1990 to 1995, were added to it. [6901]
§ Mr. JackThe Budget forecast for the PSBR in 1996–97 was £22.4 billion. The absolute average error on PSBR forecasts, made in the autumn of the previous year, for both the four-year period 1991–92 to 1994–95 and the six-year period 1989–90 to 1994–95, was equivalent to 1¼ per cent. of gross domestic product, or £10 billion.
§ Ms ChurchTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what was the average overshoot or undershoot for the 81W outturn public sector borrowing requirement in relation to the prediction a year earlier for 1990 to 1995. [6900]
§ Mr. JackThe table compares the outturns for the PSBR for the period 1989–90 to 1994–95 with the forecasts made in the Budget in the previous year.
PSBR f billion1 Year Budget forecast Outturn 1989–90 -13.8 -0.8 1990–91 -6.9 -0.6 1991–92 7.9 13.8 1992–93 28.1 36.3 1993–94 50.1 45.4 1994–95 37.9 35.9 For 1989–90 to 1993–94, forecasts were made in the previous March. For 1994–95, forecasts were made in November 1993.