§ Ms ChurchTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what were the levels of spending, predicted a year previously, for each Department and for government overall, in each year from 1990 to 1995; [6881]
(2) what the predicted figures for public spending, by Department and overall, in 1996 would be if the average error in past predictions for (a) 1992 to 1995 and (b) 1990 to 1995, were added to the current prediction; [6883]
(3) what was the average overshoot or undershoot for actual spending for each Department and overall in relation to the predictions a year earlier for the years (a) 1990 to 1995 and (b) 1992 to 1995. [6882]
Mr. WaldergraveTables 1 and 2 set out the information required. The figures have been adjusted to present control total definition and departmental structure. The outturn for 1994–95 is still provisional and is consistent with the "Financial Statement and Budget Report 1996–97" published in November 1995.
The difference between planned expenditure and final outturn varies considerably from year to year. It would not therefore be meaningful to predict outturn for 1996–97 on the basis of averages over the last few years.
79W
Table 1: Level of provision set for each department in public expenditure survey of previous year (adjusted for classification and transfer changes) £'s million 1990–91 1991–92 1992–93 1993–94 1994–95 Agriculture, Fisheries and Food 1,800 2,220 2,230 2,720 2,800 Trade and Industry 3,400 4,490 3,830 4,590 3,380 ECGD 250 250 120 -30 -90 Transport 4,210 5,200 6,930 6,460 5,820 Environment 28,630 37,470 40,700 39,450 39,870 Home Office 4,640 5,180 5,760 6,040 6,260 Legal Departments 1,890 2,030 1,860 2,840 2,990 Education and Employment 8,900 9,000 9,930 12,620 13,740 National Heritage 780 880 960 990 970 Health 22,120 24,860 27,730 29,860 31,690 Social Security 48,450 52,610 59,930 65,180 68,910 Scotland 9,640 11,120 12,560 13,540 14,210 Wales 4,470 4,940 5,810 6,330 6,650 Northern Ireland 5,610 6,050 6,600 6,930 7,390 Chancellor's Department 3,440 3,790 3,660 3,450 3,500 European Communities 1,870 1,050 2,460 1,410 1,350 Cabinet Office 270 260 1,000 1,090 970 Department total 174,100 197,030 218,590 229,580 236,620 LASFE n/a 10,980 10,190 11,130 10,980 Reserve 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,000 3,500 Control total 177,100 211,530 232,770 244,680 251,100 Figures rounded to nearest £10 million.
Table 2: Average outturn compared with provision £ million 1990–91 to 1994–95 1992–93 to 1994–95 Defence 50 -200 Overseas Development 30 10 Foreign Office 130 180 Agriculture, Fisheries and Food 20 -70 Trade and Industry 180 -80 ECGD 30 20 Transport 0 -210 Environment 270 230 Home Office 100 0 Legal Departments -20 -120 Education and Employment 90 60 National Heritage 10 10 Health 270 110 Social Security 1,780 2,030 Scotland 130 0 Wales 80 20 Northern Ireland 10 60 Chancellor's Department -130 -120 European Communities 80 200 Cabinet Office 0 -10 Departmental total 3,110 2,120 LASFE -80 -140 Use of reserve -3,600 -3,830 Control total -570 -1,880 Figures rounded to nearest £10 million.