HC Deb 08 February 1993 vol 218 cc468-9W
Mr. Gapes

To ask the Secretary of State for Health what is the basis for Office of Population Censuses and Surveys calculations of future population structure.

Mr. Sackville

Projections of the popFulation of the United Kingdom and its component countries are made by the Government Actuary's department in consultation with the registrars general. These are based on the most recent population estimates and on the assumptions about future births, deaths, and migration which seem most appropriate given the statistical evidence available at the time.

Subnational population projections for England are prepared by the OPCS. These project the population of local and health authority areas. The assumptions made reflect recent demographic evidence for each area and are consistent with the national projections. Local and health authorities are consulted about these projections before they are finalised.

Further details are given in the OPCS publications national population projections: 1989-based—series PP2 No. 17—and subnational population projections: 1989based—series PP3 No. 8—copies of which are in the Library.

Mr. Gapes

To ask the Secretary of State for Health what changes the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys is planning to make to its calculations of future population structure in the light of its over-estimate of the number of persons aged over 85 years in the London area as revealed by the 1991 census; and if she will make a statement.

Mr. Sackville

The methods used in making these population estimates have been published by the OPCS in its occasional paper 37. The information which is available about migration, especially its age and sex composition, is the least satisfactory component of the estimation procedure. Because of this a review of migration data sources has been carried out—OPCS occasional paper 39. The review identified some exploratory work on possible enhancements. This is now being undertaken. In the light of overestimation of persons aged 85 and over in the London area, the OPCS is looking again at its methodology; but it is not yet known whether it will prove practicable to make improvements to it.